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Monday, November 2, 2015

Striving For An Achievable Force-Mix

Since the 1950s the Indian Air Force (IAF) has been striving for attaining a balanced force-mix of combat aircraft platforms, be they deep-penetration strike aircraft (DPSA), medium multi-role combat aircraft (M-MRCA), dedicated tactical interdiction/tactical air-support aircraft, air superiority combat aircraft, defensive counter-air combat aircraft, and light MRCAs (L-MRCA).
Consequently, in the DPSA category, the IAF took delivery of 104 English Electric Canberras between 1957 and 1970, and they were eventually replaced by 196 BAE Systems/SEPECAT Jaguar IS (built between 1982 and 2008, with each of them qualified for carrying 4.5 tonnes of offensive payload.
In the M-MRCA category, 140 single-seat Hawker Hunter FGA.9s and 20 T.66 two-seat operational conversion trainers were procured between 1957 and 1962 (these were decommissioned in 1996), followed by 59 Dassault Aviation-supplied Mirage 2000H/THs in the mid-1980s and mid-1990s (of these, 51 are now being upgraded). 
When it came to L-MRCAs, 110 Mystère IVs were acquired  since 1957 (they were decommissioned by  1973), followed by 205 Type-77 MiG-21FLs (procured between March 1965 and 1972 and decommissioned by 2006), 158 Type-88 MiG-21Ms between February 1973 and November 1981 (decommissioned by 2012), and 295 Type-75 MiG-21bis between 1977 and 1984, of which 125 were upgraded to MiG-21 Bison standard in the late 1990s and these will be decommissioned by 2017.
The IAF had also acquired, purely for defensive counter-air operations, 243 Folland Gnats and 89 Ajeets since the early 1960s, whereas for offensive air superiority operations, 46 MiG-23MFs served the IAF between July 4, 1983 and March 20, 2007 (logging nearly 32,581 flying hours), and these were augmented by 80 MiG-29B-12s (procured between October 1987 and 1995), of which 63 are now being upgraded to serve as M-MRCAs.
It is, however, in the dedicated tactical interdiction/tactical air-support aircraft category that the IAF went in for ambitious expansion since 1968, starting with the procurement of 220 Sukhoi Su-7BMKs (each qualified for hauling 3 tonnes of offensive payload), followed by 95 MiG-23BNs (serving between January 1980 and March 6, 2009 and having flown more than 154,000 hours) each carrying a 3-tonne weapons payload, and 175 MiG-27Ms (165 of which were licence-built by HAL between 1986 and 1992) each of which could haul a 3-tonne weapons payload. Of these, 40 were upgraded to MiG-27UPG standard—the upgrade work involving only the mission avionics suite.
From the above, it becomes evident that the IAF’s continuously evolving force-structure exercises (in response to the evolving threat perceptions) have resulted in an operational fleet inventory comprising about 180 DPSAs, about 180 air-superiority aircraft for both defensive counter-air and offensive air-escort missions, about 160 M-MRCAs, about 270 tactical interdiction/tactical air-support aircraft, and some 250 L-MRCAs. In other words, a total of about 1,040 combat aircraft (inclusive of war reserves) distributed among the authorised 42 squadrons (of these 12 being dedicated for operations along India’s northern frontiers in a two-front wear scenario). This was the situation till 1991.
Since the mid-1990s, a number of factors led to the IAF re-examining its force-mix of combat aircraft. Firstly, the advent of open-architecture avionics suites, higher-thrust turbofans and standoff precision-guided munitions (PGM) meant that existing (like the MiG-29 and Mirage 2000) and future M-MRCAs (like the Rafale, which can haul 9.2 tonnes of offensive payload) could easily take on the roles of deep interdiction and tactical interdiction and offensive air-escort, thereby doing away with the need for role-specific combat aircraft like the Jaguar IS, MiG-23MF and MiG-23BN/MiG-27M. Secondly, L-MRCAs, both existing and future acquisitions, would also stand to gain from such technological advances. 
Thirdly, the ‘game-changing’ availability of heavy MRCAs like the Su-30MKI and AEW & CS platforms meant that in the initial 96 hours of an offensive air campaign, the IAF would have the luxury of having its M-MRCAs escorted by H-MRCAs (with airborne battlespace management being provided by AEW & CS platforms) deep inside hostile airspace, and after air supremacy is achieved, the H-MRCAs, operating from medium-altitudes, too would serve as DPSAs and tactical air-interdictors. The L-MRCAs would, from Day 1 of hostilities, be assigned for both tactical air-support and defensive counter-air missions. 
So, the ideal 42 squadron force-mix—when dealing with a limited but high-intensity, sequential two-front war scenario—ought to comprise 30% of the combat aircraft being composed of H-MRCAs, 35% of M-MRCAs and the remaining 35% of L-MRCAs—these being backed up by no less than 12 AEW & CS platforms and 28 aerial refuelling tankers.    
In reality, however, matters started worsening from the early 1990s itself. While the Indian Army, due to political reasons, was prevented from implementing its Field Artillery Rationalisation Plan (which had called for the introduction of up to 2,900 155mm towed and self-propelled howitzers) and was also denied the opportunity to procure attack helicopters (despite a firm commitment in writing from the MoD way back in 1986 that acknowledged the Armys need for such hardware), the IAF was hit with a double whammy: unavailability of the promised L-MRCA—the Tejas Mk1, and the sudden reason by the Russian Federation to decommission all members of its MiG-23BN and MiG-27M families and instead use the Su-25 family of close air-support aircraft as tactical interdictors as well.      
The twin-engined, subsonic Su-25’s R & D began in early 1968, and its maiden flight took place on February 22, 1975 (the single-engined, supersonic MiG-27M took to the skies for the first time in 1974). But Pavel Puthakov,  the Soviet Air Force Commander-in-Chief from 1969 till 1984, was more in favour of inducting supersonic tactical air-support aircraft in service and therefore chose not to order the Su-25. It was only in mid-1976, when Poland asked Russia if it could licence-build the Su-25, that Leonid Brezhnev, the then General Secretary of the Central Committee of the USSR’s Communist Party (from 1964 until his death in 1982) became aware of the Su-25’s existence and ordered its service-induction. The first production-series Su-25 was rolled out in 1979 and during its nine years of combat in Afghanistan, only 23 were lost out of 60,000 flights. 
It was also discovered then that compared to the MiG-27M, the Su-25, armed with a 4-tonne weapons payload, was five times better in terms of viability. No wonder Russia continues to swear by the Su-25 and has even developed a follow-on, upgraded version known as the Su-39, this meaning that the Su-25 family will remain in service till 2030 at best. One can therefore only guess why the Soviets never offered the Su-25 for export to India, and instead sold only the MiG-23BNs and MiG-27Ms, and why India, unlike Poland, never even asked the then-USSR to licence-build the Su-25 instead of the MiG-27M.
Due to the above-mentioned reasons, the IAF’s force-mix is quite lop-sided today and will remain so till the end of this decade, since close to 40% of IAF’s authorised combat force will be comprised of Su-30MKI H-MRCAs, 20% of upgraded M-MRCAs like the Mirage 2000Is and MiG-29UPG, and the rest with platforms like the Jaguar IS, MiG-27UPGs, MiG-27Ms and MiG-21 Bisons. Squadron-wise, this breaks down into 5 with Jaguar IS/IM, up to 13 with Su-30MKIs, 3 with MiG-29UPGs and another 3 with Mirage 2000Is, 4 with MiG-27UPGs and MiG-27Ms, and 11 with MiG-21 Bisons. The shortfalls are particularly critical in the tactical interdiction and close air-support arenas.
Squadron-wise, this breaks down into 5 with Jaguar IS/IM, up to 13 with Su-30MKIs, 3 with MiG-29UPGs and another 3 with Mirage 2000Is, 4 with MiG-27UPGs and MiG-27Ms, and 11 with MiG-21 Bisons. The shortfalls are particularly critical in the tactical interdiction and close air-support arenas.  
The obvious solutions include the procurement of six squadrons (189 units) of Rafales between 2017 and 2032 and use them as DPSAs, upgrade some 150 of the existing Jaguar IS DPSAs into tactical interdiction/close air-support platforms between now and 2020, convert some 60 of the 132 Hawk Mk.132 advanced jet trainers into the ‘Combat Hawk’ configuration to serve as close air-support platforms by 2019, and procure the IAF-specific version of the LCA (Navy) Mk.1 from 2017 onward to serve as the L-MRCA. 
This will ensure that by 2020 the IAF has some 350 Su-30MKI H-MRCAs, close to 50 Rafale M-MRCAs serving as DPSAs, and close to 210 aircraft for tactical interdiction and close air-support. However, the US$4 billion question still remains: how exactly should one go about the process of procuring the required 250 fourth-generation L-MRCAs comprising a mix of the IAF-specific version of the LCA (Navy) Mk.1 and the projected Tejas Mk.2 and in what kind of timeframe?

337 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 337 of 337
Arpit Kanodia said...

@bhoutik He mean Indian Sosus network that Indian Navy planning to deploy. And importing US hardware for this.

birbal said...

Here is the COOL video of the TERRA System-

http://i-hls.com/2015/11/iai-unveils-terra-defense/

Awesome isn't!! That's why i earlier said that Israel is ALWAYS one step ahead of the opposition....

Hope Prasun da throws some light on the TERRA system regarding the proposed future BMD LRTR system...So i think the ELM-2090S Spectra will be selected as a companion of the Ultra UHF radar system to form the TERRA system! What do you say Prasun da??

Thanks.

bhoutik said...

i'm not aware of SOSUS network in the IOR. would you please throw some light on them - where they are located, their efficacy, capability and importance, and any Indian plans for similar networks (unless something smallscale already exists).

btw, video's emerged of a missile test in California. was it indeed a Trident - or something classified? here's footage - https://vimeo.com/145029572

F said...

Prasun,

Thanks for the info on the Su-25. I've always wondered why the IAF didn't order any.

I recall reading that the PAF - during the Soviet presence in Afghanistan - requested squadron's worth of A-10s but didn't receive export clearance.

amit said...

sir,
what do you think about bihar election result ?
i find it unbelievable that people could still for rjd & congress

!) was this elections a precursor of things to come in 2019 GEs
2) will it not embolden the opposition to disrupt the parliament even more & slow the reform process even more, now that they have tasted success?
3)is modi's star waning ?
4) i guess bjp's media strategy failed remarkably..what do you think ?

5) punjab already looks a lost case for bjp, specially in coalition with SAD..
what do you think will happen in assam & up..

please share your view sir.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

VMT, & wishing everyone & all their loved ones a joyous Deepavali & Kali Puja as well.

DESI BROWN MAGIC said...

Prasun, while I concur with your theory about Ruskies holding a Lollypop to India; One wonders if we as Indians can hold enough trust in leadership of both MOD and DRDO. These are the same guys who have ruined The LCA Tejas program to which we should hold IAF equally responsible. Tejas was to be a good machine, a machine belonging to the future and was clearly inspired from Mirage fighter; these fellows couldn't even copy properly evident by the misplace and ill designed Air Intakes. How come an IAF which has been flying Mirages for yonks with inflight refuelling capacity and failed to mention it in initial design and now even this a basic feature of fighters of last generation is offered as an upgrade on MKII. You are factually correct about THAAD and S400 but these buffoons will mess it all up.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MAYUR M MANAPURE: They have to presumed as being dead, although as per the law, any untraceable person is listed as missing for a 6-year period & only on the 7th year the missing person is declared as being dead.

To BHOUTIK: The US along with Japan has between 2003 & 2006 already installed a new-generation SOSUS network in the Western Pacific & South China Sea & this covers every strait, especially the ones in the Indonesian archipelago. This network is codenamed FISH HOOK. What the IN requires is a SOSUS network for 1) closing the gap between northern Sumatra & Indira Point in the A & N chain of islands, & 2) around the southeastern & southwestern coastlines of India. Only if such a network is put in place will it be possible for the IN's projected SSNs & leased SSGNs to be quickly vectored on short-notice to areas where the PLAN's SSNs or SSBNs may be effecting entry either within the IOR or the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea. The US Navy's survey vessels have already done seabed surveys of all such areas, including those within India's EEZ, since 2003 & possesses all the databases required for designing an India-specific SOSUS network & supplying some of the critical comms & acoustic sensor hardware, while Japan has the expertise for supplying India with the necessary types of seabed cables as well as the deep-sea robots reqd for laying such cables & their underwater nodes.

To FARIS: Not A-10As. But the PAF did ask for E-2C Hawkeyes & Grumman OV-1 Mohawks equipped with SAR sensors. Both were denied by the US.

To AMIT: That's caste-based politics for you! But I reckon the electorate of Bihar voted mainly for Nitish Kumar & not for Lalu. It's just that Lalu's RJD was pillion-riding on Nitish's JDU. Congress won't be able to derive any major advantage from this. BJP's electoral strategy failed the day NaMo started promising financial dole-outs. And what he had promised was actually 1/10th of what Bihar actually requires, but has been denied over the past few decades. The same goes for Punjab, where industrialisation has suffered a lot over the past 2 decades due to faulty policy-formulation by the Centre.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DESI BROWN MAGIC: The folks who messed up the Tejas LCA programme from the outset were the policy-makers of that time, i.e. Defence Minister R Ventakaraman, DRDO Chief Dr V S Arunachalam, & the then PM Indira Gandhi, followed by her son Rajiv Gandhi. They & only they can be held responsible for the debacles because they, & no one from IAF HQ, were the policy-makers. Had anyone taken the IAF seriously in the early 1980s, then an enlarged Gnat aircraft with a powerful turbofan from SNECMA & a FBW flight-control system from British Aerospace would easily have emerged as an LCA in less than a decade. But this proposal was condemned to the dustbin, just so that the DRDO could enlarge its turf/domain! Remember, the mid-1980s wre the years where the annual defence spending accounted for almost 3.86% of the annual budget, compared to the 2.38% of today.

Let me share with you another 'lolly-pop' emanating from the Ruskies: though they have 'promised' to develop a TMD-specific version of the S-400, BUT IN LIEU of this happening in the fullness of time (whose timeframe can be defined only by the Ruskies), they have proposed that India as an interim measure procure a limited number of Almaz-Antey V-2500 systems! It is folks who don't know about all this (mainly idiotic jingoes who are lurking around) are all going ga-ga over the S-400. In reality, the version of the S-400 being offered to India exists only on paper as of now, & that's the reason why the Ruskies have enlisted the help of Israel Aerospace Industries for their marketing efforts in India. That's the bitter truth!!!

DESI BROWN MAGIC said...

Thanks Prasun for further clarification Re S400, hope the MOD goes through all contracts with a fine tooth comb. In comparison to Indian MOD we must give credit to PAF and their establishment for their JF-17 which is now due for block III development. Though the design of the plane is a thing of the past, at least it is serving their immediate needs and by arming it with good BVR armament they are rendering TEJAS a bit redundant. Is their any chance they will ditch the Klimov RD93 for something from SNECMA in order to enhance the thrust output and serviceability.
A good comparison can be read here: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news/content?id=20150506000135&cid=1101

Shaji Pappan said...

Why towed howitzers are still used. Why can't all of our artillery be tracked or wheeled. I am not questioning light howitzers like m777 which can be transported by helicopters to places without any road connectivity like mountainous terrain.
For towed howitzers still one truck per howitzer is needed to tow it around all the time.

Also we hear things like OFB assault rifles, DRDO artillery, Arjun mk2, FICV, NAG, and CLGM but none have been inducted or reported on lately.

Why can't the obvious solutions like Bharat Forge GC-145 or TATA Kestrel be inducted?

What's taking so long to lift the blacklist on Rheinmetall, IMI, and Denel?

Unknown said...

http://thediplomat.com/2013/08/indias-missile-defense-is-the-game-worth-the-candle/1/

This article claims that india already had s300 systems

Also if s300vm can ACTUALLY HIT MRBMs then there is no in buying them as interim solutions! Afterall porkistan has only srbm & mrbm in its inventory
But million $ question is 'HAVE THEY EVER DEMONSTRATED ABM CAPABILITY OF S300VM?

Wishing you happy Deepawali & Happy Kali pujo....

Unknown said...

^Then there is no harm* in buying them
TYPO ^

Shaji Pappan said...

Instead of worrying about Russia being able to make a TMD S-400, we should be more worried about HAL screwing up the (naval) Tejas mk1.

HAL's ineptitude can never be underestimated....

Gopu said...

Interesting read.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/06112015-quiet-burial-for-india-us-nuclear-deal-analysis/

65% of the IAF should be H-MRCA and M-MRCA while only 35% is L-MRCA. While this makes for a "limited but high-intensity, sequential two-front war scenario", using these twin-engine planes for supersonic training is ridiculous. This basic need for a single-engined LIFT should be glaring in the IAF's face due to this fact. Of course once they graduate the LIFT, then they will move on to training with twin-engined planes.

Why is there no indigenous development on PGMs and guided glide bombs (assuming seekers are imported)? I heard about a Sudarshan LGB a couple of years ago, but haven't heard anything else on it since.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DESI BROWN MAGIC: China can only cast a glance at SNECMA-made turbofans for combat aircraft. For as long as the EU weapons embargo remains in force (& there’s no prospect of it being lifted in the foreseeable future), no turbofan of Western origin will ever be available for the FC-1/JF-17.

To PIYUSH DAS: No version of the S-300 LR-SAM were ever procured by anyone in India, period. You’re assuming that Pakistan will stay satisfied with its existing arsenals of SRBMs & TBMs & MRBMs. What if plans are already in place for procuring DF-16s & DF-21s before 2020? Have you considered that prospect, something which I had mentioned 2 years ago?

To SHAJI PAPPAN: Totally off-the-mark. The LCA project wasn’t sabotaged by HAL at all! I have already given the names of people who sabotaged it, willingly. In fact, had the IAF’s voice been heeded since 1979, HAL would have been able to develop an excellent iteration of the Gnat (since India not only purchased the Gnat, but also its entire design data package from Folland Company of the UK) & this could have been invaluable in developing a heavier, bigger single-seat, single-engined MRCA version of the Gnat. Therefore, HAL & NAL together would have developed this MRCA in less than a decade. In fact, British Aerospace had at that time proposed to co-develop with HAL 2 types of FBW flight-control systems: one for the Gnat-derived LCA, & the other for the Jaguar IS/IM. But the bureaucrats of MoD in collusion with the technocrats of the DRDO won the battle & successfully overruled the IAF & HAL. The end-result is for all of us to see!

To GOPU: LoLz! I don’t understand how this can be interpreted as being a burial for the 123 Agreement, when all that India has done since then is decide to procure 2 more VVER-1000 PWRs from Russia for Kudankulam & 2 from France! In addition, the 123 Agreement also paved the way for India to sign the IAEA’s Additional Protocol, due to which it can now import enriched uranium & natural uranium ore from Russia, Kazakhstan, Niger & Canada & put them to use for those nuclear power reactors that are under full-scope IAEA safeguards. This in turn enables India to use an appreciable amount of its indigenous uranium ore for its strategic programmes.

Gopu said...

I don't understand that connection either. Still, building Western reactors like the French EPR seem increasingly unviable. Better to wait for 4th generation reactors and proceed with completing the Thorium-based fuel cycle.

Gopu said...

And that article was anyways tangential to my actual queries.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/lt-in-pact-to-sell-kattupalli-port-to-adani-group/article7862171.ece?w=alauto

What Happen to L&T. Is Kattupalli port a failed Project for L&T?. Please explain

Thanks,
S. Kumar

rad said...

HI Prasun
The failure of the nirbhay missile seem to be because of the loss of engine thrust.Could you elaborate on that and the possible causes. The engine should have been tested thoroughly before going on board, what seems to be amiss .In fact only now there seems to be some explanation about the cause of failure.
As per your above post is the 400 km s-400 missile not proven yet?.Why is it being offered as a lollipop?for the pak fa?.The quoted speed is mind boggling, i assume it is for the peak velocity. please explain?.
Will it not come under the MCTR regime and how are we going to over come it?.

CSC said...

Prasunda, can you pls tell me why even basic mobile phone and laptop chips have moved to 64 and 128 bit, why are fighter aircraft avionics designed around 32 bit chips...

Also kaali pujor shubhokamona

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Rising intolerance in the UK against the construction of mosques & serving of 'halal' food:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byRGsYJAPPA&hd=1

Guess it's time for the Pakistan-origin diaspora in the UK to pack their bags & embark upon a journey back to their country of origin!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To CSC: VMT. Because 32-bit processors from INTEL or Motorolla are still enough to handle the processing traffic volumes reqd for digital flight-control computers. But the demands for miniaturisation for avionics like small-diameter data-links, core avionics computer & integrated EW suites is taking their OEMs towards higher-speed processors.

To RAD: IF that is the case, then the problem is not with the turbofan, but with its FADEC processor, which is linked to the navigation system for seeking cues on thrust-control. The quoted-/claimed-speed is indeed mind-boggling & that's precisely the reason why it should be believed only after witnessing it first-hand, instead on relying on theoretical conceptual projections.

To GOPU: Thorium-based fuel-cycle is even more commercially unviable today when natural uranium ore is freely available for importation. Compared to the French reactors, the Russian PWRs are the most economical from a commercial standpoint. Following that are the locally-developed 700mW PHWRs due to their high local industrial content.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To S KUMAR: LoLz! That report is self-explanatory: what is being sold is the port/container terminal, & not the adjoining shipbuilding facility. So no need to panic. Relax! Just re-read that report again with an eye for detail & you will understand.

Gopu said...

Thorium reactors are unviable nowadays, but my understanding is that R&D must continue in this area to ensure commercial designs in the next 50 years (along with fast breeder reactors). Economic realities dictate that fossil-fuels will become less viable and there is uncertainty whether renewable energy will be able to scale up to demand in 50 years (since they're geography-limited).

In general, I wonder what technologies need to be developed for air forces when oil prices skyrocket in the semi-distant future (like aviation biofuels). I guess the same applies to navies although they can fit nuclear reactors inside their larger ships.

Anonymous said...

@Gopu,

Liquid Floride Thorium Reactor technology has been available since the 1960s.

Best Regards
Rajesh

Gopu said...

@Rajesh,

Thank you for the info. My guess is that these reactors were de-prioritized due to the Cold War (you need plutonium for weapons) and then later the oil lobby. New engineering technologies that make these reactors feasible on a large scale are what's needed.

Right now fossil fuels and uranium are cheap, so there is no immediate need. And of course, India needs to build more coal-fired power plants right now.

Here's some anti-thorium arguments.
http://www.nuclearpledge.com/reports/thorium_briefing_2012.pdf

rad said...

hi prasun
We have a proven 700mw PHWR . Why cant we base all future plans based on that . I dont think it is a big deal tying to upscale it into a 1000 mw reactor .What are efficiency ratios compared to the imported ones. Why cant we mass produce them locally and save the country billions in exchange while developing and gaining experience?.
Is a higher power submarine based reactor being developed for future platforms as an 80 mw reactor seems in adequate for a 6000 ton sub.?We could also use that in future aircraft carriers and the like.will it be cost efficient to put in a destryer?. what happens if a missile strikes on such a platform?.

SATYAM said...

Hi Prasun,

How do I start a weapons manufacturing company in India? What are the procedure and licenses required?

Thanks for your help.

raw13 said...

PAF are not interested in a european engine for the JF-17. However, they are happy to fit one in for a customer if they prefer it. If Egypt buy the jf-17, they are likely to go for a european engine. This has been stated many times by PAF/PAC, even this week in Dubai.

Some info on jf-17. version III in full R&D mode. The nose cone is being adapted to fit ASEA, its fuel carrying capacity is being enhanced (weight has been reduced due to higher % of composit), another 2 hardpoints and the MA version of the current engine are all go. Its ETA 2017 and its productions in 2018.

E-2C Hawakeye was offered to Pak during the era of Zia-ul-haq, in the mid 80's. He turned it down, he wanted AWACS. Just google it.

financeblogger said...

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/DUs9BDLaiUvHvBlmwOq0cK/India-seeks-armed-drones-from-US-in-challenge-to-Pakistan.html

As stated in the above report, Indian air-force has sent letter to General Atomic to purchase Avenger drones, two days after USA backed India's membership to MTCR.

MTCR membership has several hurdles, as stated in the report.

INFERING FROM THE ARTICLE (ATRICLE IF TRUE), IT SEEMS YOUR PREDICTION OF SQUEEZING PAKISTAN, WHICH HAS BEEN TAKING SHAPE FOR A WHILE IS COMING TRUE, SHOWING WHAT LENGTH THE AMERICANS ARE WILLING TO GO THEREBY WARNING CHINA AS WELL. KINDLY CORRECT IF OTHERWISE.

Prasun, following are the questions

1) Your take on membership of India to MTCR (possibility and time frame for the same).

2) Possibility of India obtaining Avenger drones.

3) If India obtains Avenger drones, it's implications vis-a-vis
3 a) Pakistan
3 b) China

financeblogger said...

Sorry, the second question should be as follows


2) Possibility of Avenger drones being sold to India.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/railways/ge-wins-2-6-billion-order-to-supply-1000-diesel-locomotives-to-indian-railways/articleshow/49728363.cms

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/frances-alstom-wins-3-billion-indian-railway-contract-1242049?utm_source=ndtv&utm_medium=top-stories-widget&utm_campaign=story-3-http%3a%2f%2f



1. What happens to our loco engines manufacturing facility.

2. Why India need GE & Alstom to Manufacture Locomotives. Are they bringing new tech &
transfer of tech to our local industries.

I am dreaming of 100% everything Indian Made. Now-a-days I am hearing everything in India is made by foreign companies. Very soon even tooth pick will be made by foreign companies.

Please explain.

Thanks
S. Kumar


Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q6MsyT1ZN8

Whats your opinion on this incident that was happened in between INS Godavari and PNS Babur? Seems like all the Captains in Pakistan Navy sworn in as a Kamikaze.

But my question is why Captain of Godavari not fired warning shots when it become obvious about the intentions of the PNS Babur?

Did there any protocols available in Indian Navy to open fire when the Captain feel the ship and her crew is under threat?

Common Sense said...

Hi Prasun,

Just curious about your claims of a "Super Gnat": Would such a project have made real sense. The Gnat, even if beefed up, was still a very small fighter. You would need to drastically alter/lengthen the fuselage/wings/nosecone etc to make the proposed changes( new engine and radar) meaningful. All in all, I don't think it would have worked out in a decade's time. Might as well gone on the Gripen route or purchased the F-20 Tigershark's blueprints. It's not for no reason why only a handful of countries purchased the Gnat: its potential was very limited. Now compare that with a Mirage-III or even the Mig-21, which still have derivatives flying and even winning exports.

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Raw ,

What do you think fitting an engine to Aircraft is like launching a car with Diesel and Petrol engines
i am not sure what u are smoking !!

raw13 said...

@Technology,

I am telling you what PAC have been saying. Now you being an indian with your mindset, knowns better than anyone else I guess? However if you have time read up on the design/development methodology behind JF-17 and which components were de-coupled.

If you need something else to relax, ready this:

http://www.espncricinfo.com/blogs/content/story/939081.html

buddha said...

sir Happy Dipabali
.....suvechha o pranam neben

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To COMMON SENSE: My claim??? You need to read the autobiography of ex-IAF CAS & Ex-HAL Chairman ACM O P Mehra, Titled MEMORIES SWEET & SOUR, in which everything on the IAF's original plan for the LCA is clearly stated & explained.

To RAW13: Neither PAF nor AMC Kamra are qualified or equipped to re-engine with JF-17 with anything except for the RD-93. That's because all installation/integration work is done in Chengdu by CAC & this includes flight-testing as well since all the flight-test infrastructure exists in Chengdu, & not anywhere else. Lastly, all IPRs of the FC-1/JF-17 are owned by CAC. In view of all this, no Pakistani ought to even claim that it can tinker with the FC-1/JF-17. Period. If the PAF or AMC Kamra are claiming otherwise, then they're only making fools of themselves.

Same goes for AESA-MMR. Even the Chinese are importing PESA-MMRs from Russia for the J-10B, knowing full well that AESA-MMR is not within their reach. Thus, it emerges that only Pakistan wants to paint China as being 9 feet tall, no one else buys such claims anymore.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To S KUMAR: All those locomotives from GE Alsthom will be licence-built in India with progressively increasing local content. Just like the suburban electric rail coaches are being built in India by Bombardier Group. It is impossible to build everything with 100% local content. That's totally unnecessary in today's globalised world.

Mayur M Manapure said...

http://idrw.org/pakistans-sindh-has-characteristics-of-an-independent-state-us-congressional-report/

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Sir,

I have a few questions on Arjun Mk2 / Mk3 and Maitri missile.

1. Are works under way for Arjun Mk2. will it have Cummins engine, 120mm smoothbore cannon & Auto loader?

2. Will there be a Arjun Mk3 with below 60 tonne and a gas turbine engine?

3. Is Maitri missile project really required. Army and Air Force are procuring Spyder SR and Navy has Barak 1. Akash Mk2 is planned.

Thanks for your response in advance.

Regards,
Srinivasa N

Shaji Pappan said...

How is this Air Marshal claiming that HAL is completely faultless. (The MoD has always been full of kleptocrats, and the past PM have all been brainless. The current PM seems to be the only exception.)

If this super-Gnat was built, then somehow HAL would become competent and insanely efficient by magic. Tejas mk1 would be finished by 2005, mk2 by 2012, and AMCA by 2023.

In reality, the LIGHT Tejas mk1 costs more than a HEAVY imported Su-30. The CAG has revealed plenty of problems and HAL doesn't even know industry best practice, like making critical components easily accessible for easier maintenance and higher operational rates. HAL as lead integrator failed to coordinate avionic development among agencies and this led to unrealistic timelines for development.

Can HAL ramp up/ramp down production without having labor strikes getting in the way? I didn't think so.

HAL doesn't even have the ability to get rid of incompetents in the organization, unlike private cos.

By this time, HAL NEEDS to have organized an integrated supply chain for Tejas construction and MRO by outsourcing component and rotable manufacture to companies like TASL,Kemrock, MKU, TAAL, etc.

raw13 said...

@Prasun,

Chinese are claiming their own ASEA for the J15/J16/J11(new ones) as well as j10B/C. Its all over their media and has been for number of years. PAF have said they are looking at two ASEA options and one is chinese, the other is european. No one is claiming chinese are 9foot tall. These words aren't even in our vocabulary. Its another indian thing 9 foot tall, 56inch chest. lol.

My post does not say where ASEA is coming from but jf-17 Blk III apparently will have asea. In any case we will have the answer in 2-3years. Also there is a reason PAF are not buying the J10B, into which they invested a lot of time. The performance of jf-17 has been far above what PAF expected and in DACT's against the su-27's/J11's and J10A it morethan held its own, even when the J11's were flown by PAF pilot(s).

JEET said...

Sir, Please share with us where things are headed regarding the following procurements and their most likely solutions

1. About 350,000 BPJs and ballistic helmets, Anti-mine Boots, Binoculars, Night Vision devices, thermal imagers and protective clothings .
2. Assault Rifles, Submachine guns, Snipers & CQB carbines for our infantry, paramilitary & CAPFs
3. Armored Personnel Carriers,Light Armored Vehicles for mounting ATGMs/MMGs/Surveillance Radars, Light Utility Vehicles, Support vehicles and other specialist vehicles for the army
4. Naval Utility Helicopters
5. Next Generation Missile Vessels (NGMVs) And ASW Corvettes

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW14: There's a huge difference between Chinese jingoes making claims & spreading false rumours, & Chinese OEMs showing their prowess by displaying their products at aerospace/defence expos. Whether or not the rumours are all over the media makes no difference in the real world. Show me just one photo of a J-10B's nose-section containing any AESA-MMR. On the other hand, photos of J-10B fitted with PESA-MMR from Phazotron JSC are already available. PAF had earlier toyed with the idea of obtaining an AESA-MMR from Italy's Selex Galileo, but that option too has since been discarded because of the EU weapons embargo against China. As I had explained earlier, AMC Kamra possesses neither the systems integration infrastructure nor the human resources reqd for integrating any kind of MMR on any combat aircraft. You therefore don't have to wait for another 2 or 3 years for the answer. I've just given it to you.

Furthermore, during the last Shaheen-IV air exercises, the JF-17 was soundly beaten in every engagement by the J-10A. And no PAF pilot has ever piloted either the Su-27SK/Su-27UBK or the J-11A/J-11AS. PAF pilots only took joyrides since they were always seated behind the PLAAF pilot flying the Su-27UBK & J-11AS.

To SHAJI PAPPAN: You'rfe sonsistently missing the point: you can't hold HAL responsible for what's happening with Tejas MRCA. HAL is only the production authority & not the product developer. If you have complaints about R & D, then by all means hold ADA responsible. How can HAL even contemplate series-production when the R & D cycle far from being completed? Unless & until the R & D work is completed, the design can't be frozen. And if that's not happening, then the jigs & moulds can't be ordered.

If at all HAL is totally incompetent, then this state of affairs is due only to the incompetency of past RMs, & to a certain extent the MoD's bureaucracy. That's exactly why those skilled human resources (engineers & technicians) from HAL are always being poached by the private-sector. If I have to choose between someone who has learnt the intricacies of aircraft design & maintenance through years of practical hands-on experience, versus a freshly graduated techie employed by ADA to design a MRCA at a time when he/she has never even physically touched any aircraft's airframe in his/her life, my choice becomes eaqsy, simple, & crystal-clear. So yes, if HAL was entrusted with the task of developing a 'Super Gnat', it would have delivered, whereas the learning curve for any ADA employee would have been far far higher & that's exactly what has happened, leading to avoidable time & cost overruns.

birbal said...

Very truly said Prasun da to Shaji Pappan's query.
I completely agree with that.

Why blame the Caterer when the Cook is making all the mess in the kitchen!!!!

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.dawn.com/news/1217909/pakistans-tool-of-war-al-khalid-main-battle-tank-the-armoured-fist

1. How many Al-Khalid tanks produced and how many are in service in Pakistan Army.
2. What is the percentage of Pakistan share in the Al-Khalid Tank manufacturing process.
3. If you are given a choice to select, which tank you will select Arjun or Al-Khalid.

Thanks
S. Kumar

Santosh Kumar Sharma said...

Hi Prasun, small question on chinese F-7 (Mig 21 clone) engine, kindly answer when you get the time.

1) The soviets and the chinese had a split in the 60s, and soviets stopped supporting the chinese in their support for Mig 21. Then how come, the chinese were able to sustain Mig 21s engine and develop even more modifications to the design of airframe which even the soviets never made.

2) Did the soviets transfer complete engine technology or was it similar to TOT that India and HAL had for R-25 and R-11 engine. If it was TOT similar to HAL's then why HAL was not able to sustain the engine development and come with something similar, as the chinese.

3) Can HAL make the complete engine of Mig 21 i.e. R-25 or Su30s AL31F engine without any soviet or russian help, that is with complete indigeneous content and raw materials. And what are we still importing from russians. Is it materials, coatings? Is it because of cheaper cost from russian side or lack of technology from our side?

Rajesh Mishra said...

Based upon your solid comments, I too exempt the HAL from various serious charges.

Anonymous said...

Please Answer:-

Did india have

1. non storable liquid propellant tech for missiles

2. storable liquid propellant tech for missiles

3. Maneuverable re-entry warhead

4. MIRV


Prakash

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,
Any comment about this
http://arynews.tv/en/pakistan-refuses-to-issue-renunciation-of-citizenship-certificate-to-adnan-sami/
A senior official of the Interior Ministry revealed details and said:-
” Why would we issue the certificate to a man who has no respect for ‘sacred’ documents.” He also revealed a line from a letter that the singer had sent to the Pakistani High Commission in India along with his Pakistani passport, wherein he had stated “I don’t need the green passport anymore. I have found my home in India.”

Maybe all like black color passport instead of green one. Even Syed Geelani chooses Indian passport, instead of going in Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi, and request for green passport and request asylum in Pakistan.

Arpit Kanodia said...

But interesting thing is, how passport of any country can be "sacred"? .Lol.

Mayur M Manapure said...

@Arpit...there are thousands of people among the Syrian refugees who want to throw away this sacred "Green Book of shame". They are riled because a well known guy wants to denounce his IRP citizenship and wants to embrace Indian Citizenship. And I don't think it's going to stop HM to grant Adnan citizenship.

Anonymous said...

Hi prasun,
Iaf operated the mig 25 as well correct?
Some were sposed to have crashed
The Chinese can also make use of the Intel core processors for grn purpose compute I'm their weapon SYS since these are commercial off the shelf prod. How will the us prevent that as the instruction set is also available open source.
They can also make Use of chips meant for mobile telephony - modems that companies like zte will make use of.
Also whybdoes iaf want l mrca? Close air sup can be taken care of by mi 25 and let us have a fleet of mmrca and hmrca

Gopu said...

Why can't a holistic asset review be implemented where the IAF reduces its MMRCA requirement after factoring in naval MMRCAS (ie: IAC-2 Rafales) and LACMs?

Gopu said...

Granted, the operational overlap isnt 100%, so it isnt 1 for 1 replacement.

SK said...

Prasun,

Where is the evidence that Russia was offering S-400 with IAI radar? Is there any link whatsoever, from either party ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Forget the slower, lumbering Heron-TP! Here comes the Avenger:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fRNU7--H7Y&hd=1

Matters are at quite a serious stage, according to what I've gathered from various OEMs present at Dubai-2015 Air Show.

To SK: No Links at all. Only the MAKS-2015 show dailies.

To GOPU: That's not possible because the IAF & IN won't necessarily be engaging in joint warfighting & therefore will be fighting their own wars in different theatres. Against China, for instance, along the LAC the IAF will be the only available warfighter, with no back-up whatsoever from the IN. In any case, under prevailing circumstances, no holistic threat assessments or holistic responses can even be contemplated because there's no holistic Grand Strategy or Higher Directions of War directive emanating from the MoD. Consequently, none of the 3 armed services can even attempt to evolve a holistic, combined tri-services warfighting doctrine, & without this, no joint services warfighting strategy can be put into practice. It is what I call 'India's Doctrinal Riddle'. An entire book can be written about it.

youngbengal said...

PrasunDa, Still there is very little participation of private co's in defense industry. Increasing FDI cap will be able to change the scenario?
Every one out here bragging about producing defense eqpt. which require advance technological infrastructures. Leave alone producing subsystems of an aircraft, DRDO/ARDE still unable to come up with a decent reliable bomb-fuze. First off all, private players should be roped in for supplying the home grown solution for the small spares requiring simple technology which we are importing from non-OEM countries. The surplus production after meeting domestic demand can also be exported with competitive price. Untill unless there is strong industrial back up for producing simple and small things in India, DRDO needs to carry out a long paper work from tendering to importing even an artificial magnet. This defense eqpt. sector is such a field that one cannot start a company and do business successfully with even fresh IIT and IIM toppers. There fore, initially private companies are to poach engineers and techies from defense forces only, as they all ready have in hand experience in design, function and applicability of such foreign eqpt. Now a days, after retiring from service defense personnel are finding job in banks, retail or other mercantile company or working in private security agencies and fighting for OROP when unable to find a job as per their caliber and capability. I think private conglomerates should think seriously. Indian armed forces are decade behind in possessing proper field eqpt. which are easy in transportation and installation. Further, India is so much blessed with natural calamities that these products have a bright future in civilian market also. Just for example, if Neelkamal and Supreme were not available in India then OFB could not produce INSAS in present production rate. ADA will never be able to concentrate in finding right AESA as long as they are busy in searching right split pin, felt washer, tucker pop rivets, glass fibers, fire retardant cables, non brittle glues, temperature resistance rubber washer and many more around the globe. Mind it, for every thing they required to do same volume of paper work that required for AESA. Sir, could you please post an article about future planning of private cos and GoI i,r,t this ?

birbal said...


Predator-C Avenger....the hypersonic (Mach 8.2) Theater High-Altitude Air-Defence (THAAD) TMD system in near future( high chance...you never know)...
Wow Prasun da.. Things are really starting to get HOTTT

Unknown said...

Sir, do we gain any aNy ANY type of expertise by buying stuff like s-400, avenger drones, etc...etc...

Like through direct tech transfer
Or by reverse engineering

Tech like internal weapon bays (avenger)
Hypersonic engines, fuels, seeker,(S400) ANYTHING ?

Rohan said...

Looks like Tata quietly bagged another good deal

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2015-11-09-Boeing-and-Tata-Announce-Aerospace-Joint-Venture-in-India

Did any of the Desi media report this? Or has it been lost in the post-Bihar maelstrom

Pintu said...

Interesting link :

http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/oldest-known-stars-found-at-the-heart-of-milky-way/article7869097.ece

birbal said...

Hey Pintu that's A CUTE photo...
Don't mind me asking who are the other CUTE friends of yours...!!! Lots of love

I hope Prasun da don't mind it....NOT my blog..

Pintu said...

Lolz Birbal, that avatar is really cute one, reason behind choosing that , anyways the link I have posted above, may raise a question of presence of ancient alien lives there in, I request Prsaun Da's view.

http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/oldest-known-stars-found-at-the-heart-of-milky-way/article7869097.ece

Pintu said...

Meanwhile , belated Suvo Kalipuja and Deepabali to Prasun Da and everybody.

birbal said...

@ Pintu,

You know what the photo says to me..
Big or small, Huge or tiny.....Doesn't matter..WE ARE ALL BROTHERS-IN-ARM.
Give me a HUGG...Smiles

raw13 said...

Good news. JF-17 has just bagged another customer at Dubai.

raw13 said...

PAC has 58% share of manufacturing and 50% profit. They will use this for further development.Block IV & V already in the plans. Even if JF-17 replaces 20% of Mig-21s/F-7s + Mirages/Kfirs, that is 100's of sales. The support, parts, integration, training will mostly fall to PAC/PAF.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To S KUMAR: LoLz! These so-called export customers always have a weird tendency to remain unknown! Firstly, the statement was issued by China's AVIC, meaning the marketing authority is CATIC. Secondly, therefore, if at all a sale has taken place, then it is for the FC-1, & NOT the JF-17. Thirdly, the nature of the statement indicates that it is just an MoU, & not a firm contract. The real deals that took place in DUBAI 2015 include the following:

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2006-12-12/jammers-help-keeprussian-fighters-alive

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2015-11-09/krets-ew-systems-undergo-reality-check-syria

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2015-11-09/saab-lands-uae-surveillance-deal

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aerospace/2015-11-09/ukraine-and-ksa-cooperate-132-production

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2015-11-09/iran-could-look-more-east-west

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2015-11-09/patriot-looks-next-generation

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2015-11-08/china-reveals-fifth-generation-fc-31-fighter

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2015-11-08/iran-prepares-re-equip-its-military

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aerospace/2015-11-08/fly-wire-controls-feature-bell-525-helicopter

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2015-11-08/raytheon-improves-life-attack-controllers

To RAW13: The only customer for the JF-17 was, is & will always remain the PAF. No one else. AVIC will always ensure that the FC-1 gets export orders, & not the JF-17. So kindly stop basking in 'reflective glory' & await the flypast of the RAF's Red Arrows aerobatic display team over The Wembley when NaMo addresses the Indian diaspora there. And don't be surprised at all if you happen to find Bangladesh-origin & Pakistan-origin food caterers making bisk business there during this event. I personally have nothing against this & I want everyone to benefit from such events, just as Pakistani caterers & cooks had benefited when NaMo was in Dubai & Abu Dhabi.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: 58% manufacturing of what & in which category? Airframe? Engine? Avionics? Accessories? Wiring Harnesses? Tyres? Brake-Pads? Light-Bulbs? Ejection Seats? Washers? Filters? Valves? Hydraulics? Actuators?

birbal said...

OK Friends,

For a moment let's go into the future....same time, same month
YEAR 2019
Place Dubai Air Show
Now you might be thinking what will be there that I want to tell you about!!!

Ladies and Gentleman,
Please Welcome the LATEST & NEWEST entrant to an Air Show
The Smallest FOURTH GENERATION Fighter aircraft in the world
The PRIDE of India-
" The IAF version of LCA Mk1 ".....
Customers & reporters flogging around it to know more about it...
IT is SHINING with pride...

Wait a minute...
Where is the JF-17???
Hiding behind it....

hoods said...

Prasun

what exactly is the difference between JF-17 and FC-1.I was under the impression that FC-1 was the non-pak export version designation of JF-17.Can you give some info on the PAF-JF-17 saga,did pak significantly fund the research and development of jf-17 in china?would it not have been cheaper to just buy J-10 from china and have it customized to their choice like we did with SU-30MKI?

hoods said...

Prasun

In a thread in 2011 you had mentioned that IA might get over 600 T-90AM for their last order of t-90s ordered.is that going to happen?and have the LEDS-150 APS system been incorporated in t-90m's in your knowledge because i can't find anything on the net.what about the ironfist aps for arjun mk1a,it's a no show on any of the prototypes till date.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HOODS: Physically, the FC-1 & JF-17 are one & the same. The PAF's designation for the FC-1 is the JF-17. That's the only difference. PAC Kamra claims that it has been a risk-sharing partner in the FC-1's R & D effort, but this is like obtaining a loan from China & pumping that money back into the R & D effort. Does that really translate into a rick-sharing partnership? The entire flight-test & flight certification schedule, plus weapons qualification trials, were conducted in China by CAC's test-pilots & engineers. In other words, the sole IPR-owner of the FC-1/JF-17 is AVIC's China's Chengdu Aircraft Corp. Go to any air show today where the PAF's JF-17 is displayed/showcased & you will find Chinese officials from AVIC/CATIC officials doing all the marketing talk & giving press conferences & these officials always use the term FC-1, & not the JF-17. The only reason why the JF-17 is taken to different air shows is that it is available from the PAF for such marketing purposes. The PLA does not operate this aircraft, while all prototypes are CAC's property & being prototypes they consequently can't be displayed at international air shows. So what does all this indicate to you?

As for T-90AMs, the IA hasn't yet exercised the option of acquiring them either off-the-shelf or upgrade its existing T-90S tanks into T-90AMs. LEDS-150 APS too is awaiting installation on the first 310 T-90S that are long overdue for a mid-life upgrade. Iron Fist APS for Arjun MBT & also on a T-90S was displayed on a wall-poster only during DEFEXPO 2012 & has never been shown on any product catalogue of IMI since then.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://warisboring.com/articles/there-is-a-secret-u-s-spy-plane-flying-over-the-pacific/

http://news.yahoo.com/fuel-nuclear-bomb-hands-unknown-110000293.html

A group of scientists from China may have created a stealth material that could make future fighter jets very difficult to detect by some of today’s most cutting-edge anti-stealth radar. The researchers developed a new material they say can defeat microwave radar at ultrahigh frequencies, or UHF. Such material is usually too thick to be applied to aircraft like fighter jets, but this new material is thin enough for military aircraft, ships, and other equipment. Today’s synthetic aperture radar use arrays of antennas directing microwave energy to essentially see through clouds and fog and provide an approximate sense of the object’s size, the so-called radar cross section. With radar absorbent material not all of the signal bounces back to the receiver. A plane can look like a bird. “Our proposed absorber is almost ten times thinner than conventional ones,” said Wenhua Xu, one of the team members from China’s Huazhong University of Science and Technology, in a statement. In their paper, the team describes a material composed of semi-conducting diodes (varactors) and capacitors that have been soldered onto a printed circuit board. That layer is sitting under a layer of copper resistors and capacitors just .04 mm thick, which they called an “active frequency selective surface material” or AFSS. The AFSS layer can effectively be stretched to provide a lot of absorption but is thin enough to go onto an aircraft. The next layer is a thin metal honeycomb and final is a metal slab. The good news: the material isn’t locked away in a lab but published openly, so it’s not going to surprise anyone.

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/jap/118/18/10.1063/1.4934683

financeblogger said...

The video on General Atomic Predator drones, answers some of the questions that I had put up in the query.

THE COMMENTARY IN THE VIDEO EXPLICITLY STATES THAT, INDIA WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL NEXT OCTOBER, I.E. OCTOBER 2016 FOR MEMBER SHIP TO MTCR, AS THE NEXT MEET OF MTCR MEMBERS WILL BE IN OCTOBER 2016


Prasun, following are the questions

1) What are the hurdles to MTCR membership?

2) Implications on acquisition of Reaper drones by India vis-a-vis

2 a) Pakistan
2 b) China

birbal said...

" A group of scientists from China may have created a stealth material that could make future fighter jets very difficult to detect by some of today’s most cutting-edge anti-stealth radar. The researchers developed a new material they say can defeat microwave radar at ultrahigh frequencies, or UHF...... The good news: the material isn’t locked away in a lab but published openly, so it’s not going to surprise anyone."
Does it mean Prasun da that all FUTURE STEALTH FIGHTERS will be immune to detection by todays ANTI-STEALTH RADARS except for the VHF radars???
Since it is claimed that the material is THIN, we just need to apply it on ANY Fighter/Bomber/Spy-plane and LO here we have an STEALTH aircraft..Does it mean we can make ANY aircraft STEALTHY???
Since the Material is in the PUBLIC, Does it mean ANYONE CAN MAKE the material and apply on ANY aircraft to make it STEALTHY??? In that case there will be proliferation of STEALTH aircraft!!!

One thing BAFFLES me is why would the Chinese researchers publish it??? They could have kept it for themselves and SURPRISE the world with their STEALTH aircraft!!!
The US don't do that NOR the Russians...!!!

Thanks.

Pallab.

Akash said...

Sir,The new missiles which are hitties that Russia has offered us as part of the S-400 missile defense system are more than paper designs. They have been tested and validated last year.According to tass the tests were successfull and all the goals were achieved. So,we are going for a rather capable and promising system which is in the last stages of research and developement.

http://tass.ru/en/russia/739278

Now if we buy this BMD system,we will be requiring some potent C-Ram pgm system like Pantsir-S2 Tor-M2E/M2km to prtoect such batteries from standoff precision weapons and ARM strikes. This system is too valuable to be left undefended.

Have you received any info from Elta as to whether we are in talks with them for the C-22 and C-6 UHF radar system? Also are we going to acquire Spectra?


Do you really believe Congress and State department will allow the sale of a highly capable stealth unmanned platformwith strike capabilities to India even after we have become a member of MTCR. Seems highly unlikely for me.They will also call for the signing of those agreements -CISMOA etc which we have refused to ratifyin the past.



ACM has again reiterated the fact that no more Su-30 will be procured. Then where does this additional pirchase of 40 Super sukhoi fit in?Is IAF looking forward to make any off the shelf purchase of T-50? The Item-117 aka AL-41F1 is a very sophisticated and advanced powerplant with performance levels similar to the F119.this engine has excellant supercruise attributes with an equally good technical life.
Would be nice if we get some besides continuing with the proposed India specific Fgfa developement.

Akash said...

http://in.rbth.com/economics/defence/2015/11/12/largest-misile-cruiser-to-hold-hypersonic-misiles_539715

Do you have any information on this hypersonic cruise missile? Brahmos-2 is said to be the export variant of the Tsirkon.Now Dr Mishra had said along with other BRAHMOS Aerospace officials that the hypersonic Brahmos variant will be ready sometime after 2020. But this report days that Zircon is ready and will be test fired in early 2016. The ship will again see operational service sometime in 2017 or the first quarter of 2018 and the missile will be ready by then. NPOM has also said that they are looking into the prospect of hypersonic missiles and the propulsion complex but it seems the missile is almost ready.

Akash said...

https://www.rt.com/news/321738-russian-stealth-pak-fa/#

Some good news regarding T-50.

raw13 said...

Your PM in Kashmir:

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/modi-in-kashmir-his-economic-development-package-runs-into-entrenched-resistance-in-the-valley/

What Pakistan needs to do to change:

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-347285-Modis-India%E2%80%A6Pakistans-opportunity

raw13 said...

@Prasun,

"flypast of the RAF's Red Arrows aerobatic display team over The Wembley", this will only happen if Modi and India pay for it. This will either be by way of buying more British fighters or investment in UK (another way your rich take money out of India). That's not love or admiration but a purchase. I am sure you know the difference?

"Reflect glory", Its true we did not have all the money or all the knowledge to build the JF-17. But make no mistake it was mainly our idea, our requirements, even down to the changes between 4 and 6 prototypes, MAWS, cockpit, cabling layouts, etc... Many of these would then be retrofitted to the larger J-10B.

The risk was also shared, when you borrow money from the bank to do something, what happens when you cannot return that money with interest? That's called risk! This is why the fruits of JF-17 will be enjoyed for a long while by both PAC & CAC, same as what they did with K-8. Just to tell you the profits from that partnership have gone a long way.

Not sure you have been following the tie-up to get PAC ready to overhaul and repair the RD-93 engines in pakistan. Baby steps I know but progress nonetheless.

raw13 said...

@Prasun,

A little while ago you said CPEC would never get off the ground. I can tell you, I have never see this level of focus in Pak officials. Tunnels and road works started in G&B, KPK. And now even in Gwadar, largest international airport in Pak will be built....contracts signed and sealed.


http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-hands-over-2-000-acres-of-baluchistan-land-to-china-1242764

Even Gen Fan Changlong, here to support pak. It seems to me that it was the PLA that encouraged the chinese leadership to invest in Pak and on this scale that will make difference to the general public. If you get a chance, now is the time to invest in Gwadar!

rad said...


HI Prasun
The HAL says that it will shave of 1000kg of weight off the LCA by taking of the balance weight in the nose and also re engineering the landing gear that is heavy. I wonder how they are going to compensate that weight in the nose which will affect the stability of the ac.?
Are they fooling the again?.
Can latest aesa land based and fighter based radar be jammed? . Does it need another aesa jammer to do that?

Anonymous said...

Good find Rad. If HAL can do that, it means LCA can carry more fuel and increase its range. Also not sure you have seen the article given by prasun on chinese stealth. Can that be used by LCA?

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,
Why there is serious mistrust between Civil Military relations in India? Why even after 70 years Govts. are still afraid of coup and still saving face from hiring Joint Chief and building new HQ under Joint Command?

And if there is serious threat of coup, then how this is possible? I believe in country like India coup is physically impossible. Even if Army able to do a successful coup in New Delhi, then what about rest of India? How Army implement the coup in throughout India by just capturing New Delhi? What if Army's General refuse to accept orders from HQ in event of coup, what if a whole command defect in event of coup and refuse to do similar coup in other states and remove the Chief Ministers? And then the real question is how judiciary and bureaucracy would react?

Sir, whats your opinion on this?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BIRBAL/PALLAB: It’s obvious that paper was published to paved the way forward for applying for a patent, following which it will be commercially offered. Such papers, even those from the USSR, were published even during the Cold War & were by no means secret.

To AKASH: That weblink refers to the S-500, & not the S-400. Do read it again for proof. Such LR-SAM systems are deployed deep inside the hinterland & therefore are not susceptible to deep-strikes by hostile combat aircraft. In any case, Pakistan does not possess any twin-engined combat aircraft to serve as a DPSA. Nor will the PAF be able to spare its limited inventory F-16s for DPSA missions. There are always talks held or presentations made of new products by any OEM. That’s routine. But any definitive offer will be made not by ELTA, but by the OEM who will be the prime contractor for supplying the entire integrated system, i.e. ALMAZ-ANTEY. To date, no such detailed presentation has been made, especially if you were to compare it with the type of presentation given by the US BMD Agency. As for unmanned armed UAS of US–origin, kindly give me one reason why anyone in the US ought to be opposed to such an export sale, & also why anyone in India would refuse to ink agreements like CISMOA. What is so diabolical about such agreements? ACMs & Admirals routinely make such statements but they’re always overtaken by changing circumstances. For instance, in 1996 the then ACM had stated that the IAF does not require any new-generation H-MRCA & yet 90 days later changed his statement to confirm that the IAF was to get Su-30Ks. Similarly, the then CNS of IN had stated in December 2011 that the S-2/Arihant SSBN would proceed on operational patrols within a year. What’s the situation today in 2015? Any new-design missile has to undergo several types of tests; just one or the 1st test-firing doesn’t mean it is ready for deployment or usage.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: Not in the Valley, only in certain localities within the Valley. In more than 80% of the territory of J & K, law is perfectly normal & prospering. About the Red Arrows flypast, of course there’s always a quid pro quo, but the significant difference is that India has always & will always pay for its military hardware reqmts out of her own pockets, whereas Pakistan has always relied on its begging bowl for aid dole-outs. India’s rich never smuggle out money in dhows & trawlers like their Pakistani counterparts. Just show me one export contract for the JF-17 or the K-8 that was inked specifically with anyone in Pakistan. None! And that record will continue. As for CPEC, all tunneling & roadworks throughout GB had STOPPED after the last earthquake & damage assessment work is now in progress. India was never concerned a bit about what’s happening about the CPEC in any area except PoK. When Gen Fan Changlong goes to Delhi 2 days later, he will have to give suitable explanations & he will also be told that if China claims to impose its 9-Dash Line in the South China Sea due to China being a civilisational state, then India too can claim similar status by citing the existence of ancient Indian temples throughout J & K, PoK, Bamiyan & southern Tajikistan & thereby legitimizing its legal claim over PoK. And since your COAS has already stated that China’s enemy is also Pakistan’s enemy, just wait for most of ASEAN along with Taiwan, Japan & ROK to henceforth start shunning Pakistan in all international fora. So, no more financial aid & no more votes for Pakistan in any UN forum!

To RAD: No nose-section ever weighs more than 450kg, for starters. What HAL is saying is that it will remove the ballast weights that were earlier placed on the nose, meaning when the actual AESA-MMR & related LRUs are installed, it will result in a weight of no more than 250kg at best. Thus, only some 200kg weight-savings will result in the nose-section. And no amount of weight-savings will produce the kind of internal volume reqd for carrying more fuel. At best, it will only increase the aircraft’s MTOW. Any radar can be jammed. It all depends on how powerful the jammer is.

To ARPIT KANODIA: It is not about mistrust in civil-military relations. It is all about the disconnect between two civilian parties--the politicians & the bureaucracy. Today, not a single politician is specialising in geo-political or geo-economic or geo-strategic affairs. All of them are grassroots politicians who grow up in stature purely by making 'political' compromises throughout their political careers & by the time they make it to the top, they're in no mood for taking hard decisions through protracted debates & deliberations. In other words, compromise becomes a reflex action.

And that is precisely why when IC-814 was hijacked in December 1999, the then political leadership wasn't even the mood for listening to the military's PoV & therefore the military options were not even heard, leave alone being considered. Had a military option been exercise then, the IC-814 hijacking incident would have ended in a totally different manner.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: LoLz! From Takshashila to Mughals! What about'the brotherly' Turks & Adghans in between? Forgot them already & whitewashed them from Pakistan's memory? Wonder how Afghanistan & Turkey would react to that!

And as for: "These people show no affinity to Indian people or nation, nor have they ever done so or are likely willing to. They dont speak indian language, look like indians, their cultural life from birth to death is different from indians." just hear what Pakistan's very own PM said 4 days ago in Karachi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyGyEa5ajww&hd=1

That's right, he too wants to play Holi, get drenched during Holi & wants to celebrate Diwali!!!

So, I'm pretty sure Gen Fan will take all these into account & not make the mistake of parrotting what you've stated, especially about culture. Like I said several times before, you will make a wonderful standup comedian!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: And unlike you, Gen Fan knows perfectly well that the Tibetans too are ethnic Mongols, as are the Bhutanese. If China does recognise the Mongols as being a distinct ethnic community, then by all means--going by your logic--the land of the Tibetan Mongols should be contiguous to that of present-day Mongolia, instead of China treating the Tibetan Mongols as its own people. Or has China really suffering from the stockholm syndrome from 1950 till this date? Is this the reason why it lays claim & rules over Tibet?

Arpit Kanodia said...

@raw13

Kashmir was part of Taxila? Taxila was empire not city? Thanks to enlighten us all.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://pibphoto.nic.in/photo//2015/Nov/l2015111373069.jpg

Glimpse of the special fly past by the Royal Air Force of UK, in welcome of the Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, in London on November 12, 2015.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: The original term is TAKSHASHILA (Taxila was a simplified British construct), which was the capital of the Gandhara empire that stretched all the way to Kandahar & Herat. In those days, the Saraswati River was in full-flow through this empire & this therefore was a flourishing agrarian land at that time. I myself have seen several times how difficult it is for a present-day Pakistani to pronounce the word TAKSHASHILA--this being a distinct sign of their lesser-evolved mindset. Therefore, leave alone any MRCA, they can't even design a bread-toaster!

raw13 said...

@Prasun,

HAHA I knew you would like it. I am in complete agreement with NS, we have to look after all our people irrespective of their religion, colour or creed (or changing their eating habits). The (etc) in bracket covered all the other empires it was part of, including Achaemenid Empire (which covered most of pak).

@Arkit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxila

http://www.iranchamber.com/history/achaemenids/achaemenids.php

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: You selective memory or lack of homework, like that of the Greek historian Herodotus, is indeed amazing! Civilisation in present-day Afghanistan, Iran or Pakistan never began with the Achaemenid Empire, but with the Sumerians (http://www.ancient.eu/sumer/) & that's why even the ancient Persian city of Persepolis also has Sumerian-style sculptures. And it was this Sumerian civilisation that peacefully co-existed with its Gandhara counterpart (http://rajivmalhotra.com/library/articles/gandhara-became-kandahar/).

Arpit Kanodia said...

@raw13 Where you link saying Takshila was an empire or a city state?

BTW, this is good, now you finding your ancestors in Europe, that somehow you extend the history of Pakistan beyond 1947. This is pretty good. But truth is, Pakistan first converted this was as Hindu Muslim, now trying as civilization war.

Pakistan already was lost case in 1947, and India had no intentions whatsoever to bring back this lost totally fucked up territory, and not going to be in future. India not even annexed the Bangladesh, or not even established a single Army base in Bangladesh, leave alone it going to be with Pakistan.

But one thing,
The welfare of the society is also connected with his historical roots and history, which is already lost in Pakistan. And the result is totally fucked up land, which become Bakistan now.

But I remind you, it doesnt matter to India in which history you believe and which ancestors you choose as yours, it doesnt matter not even to state of J&K.

And if its about Indo-China diplomacy, lets see who prevails Indo China or China Pak? Afterall, this is bitter truth of geopolitics that in clashes of big countries, always smaller countries fucked up.

Arpit Kanodia said...

On further note, in recent history J&K including frontiers were part of Sikh Empire.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: Indians & their counterparts across the world not only abhor the historical distortions initiated & preached by Pakistan, but also create history. Want proof? Then read this:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Wont-be-long-before-theres-British-Indian-PM-David-Cameron/articleshow/49774243.cms

Even the most pessimistic Brits are now reading the writing on the wall. For instace, columnist Philip Collins wrote in The Times that the "egregious PM is not a man who shares our values--but Britain's relationship with India is bigger than one man." Of course no self-respecting Indian citizen will share present-day British values like having an unwritten constitution or a unitary form of government or not having a supreme court. But despite this, the UK does recognise that India remains the only shining jewel within the Commonwealth & the economic destinies of India & the UK are intertwined. No wonder the UK has now taken the bold step of being the first to issue Rupee-denominated bonds, this despite the Indian Rupee not being a fully convertible currency on a global scale, although the Indian Rupee is fully convertible throughout South & Southeast Asia (including Hongkong SAR) & the Middle East.

And as for the FC-1 & JF-=17 being identical or one and the same, yes they are in terms of physical appearance & hardware content, but they're not as far as end-user certification is concerned. An FC-1 supplied to PAC Kamra in semi knocked-down condition by CAC & only painted in PAF colours as the JF-17 at Kamra does not make PAC Kamra the owner of the IPRs of the FC-1. Therefore, IF & WHEN an FC-1 export sale takes place, it does not mean that the JF-17 becomes an exportable product, as is always claimed by the Pakistani media & PAC Kamra. Such claims cannot be legally proven either morally, or ethically or intellectually.

Anonymous said...

After reading Raw13's comments here, I felt like this. He thinks that he is shooting his opponents, but he is so stupid that he is not realizing that the barrel of the gun is towards him. Each of his comments have been refuted and proved wrong by you, Prasun, and the readers. But still he shoots, but bullets hit him, instead of others.

Good Job Prasun. I wonder if raw13 is like this, what about rest of the Pakistanis? Never been there, though, nor want to be.

Take a break, Raw13.

RaviN

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI N: VMT. But (LoLz!) RAW13's rants are aimed essentially at those who wish to be led by the nose, & there's no dearth of them inside Pakistan today among the majority of youth & this also helps explain their over-reliance on all kinds & hues of conspiracy theories. Fact-of-the-matter is that Pakistan's founding fathers decided way back in 1952 to auction the country to the highest bidder & in return has so far received US$40 billion in foreign aid (with no repayment reqd) & yet is still condemned to eating grass & making ends meet by going begging globally. Contrast this with South Korea (ROK), which received only US$10 billion in aid & look where that country stands today!

Actually, Pakistan had everything going in its favour till the mid-1960s: a smaller landmass & population than India's, which could easily have been turned into productive assets had a visionary roadmap been laid out. But instead, Pakistan chose to become a national security state (it still is) unlike a welfare state like India, & therefore ended up as an entity aspiring to vainly attain only military parity with India, instead of opting for outstripping India in socio-economic terms. The end-result: break-up of the country in 1971 due to ethnic intolerance, & now trying to stay afloat as a basket-case & degenerating as a global migrain. It is therefore inevitable that no one will tolerate such a country being & staying nuclear-armed. No IMF donor-country will subsidise Pakistan's nuclear WMD arsenals.

What is, however, most interesting are the conciliatory comments made by China yesterday:

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/pm-narendra-modis-britain-visit-has-sparked-china-rivalry-buzz-daily/

What India should say back is: why limit seamless trade-and-communications links only across the Himalayan Range? Why not extend this to the Zanskar & Karakoram Ranges as well? After all, Even with the return of PoK back to India, India will by all means always be open to seamless cross-border transit trade connectivity with not only Pakistan, but also to the Central Asian Republics? India should always emphasise that prior to 1954 she had a trade consulate at Kashgar In Xinjiang & this should be re-established for the greater benefit of not only bilateral India-China trade, but also for the rest of Central Asia.

Unknown said...

Very interesting insight on Pakistani culture from someone who experienced it first hand.
Watch from 13:06 min....

https://youtu.be/bmr1khDeah4

Very interesting indeed.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

What you said about JF-17 Export is correct.

http://idrw.org/does-pakistan-really-has-any-say-in-jf-17-exports/

Dear Raw13,

Please go through the link above. And come to the ground. Don’t keep flying forever in the imagination world. Moreover your are so much worried about Muslims all over the world. And now you are going to sell "YOUR" own weapons to Myanmar. Congratulation.

Thanks
S. Kumar

Gopu said...

What is HAL's aircraft R&D division doing now? Are they going to be absorbed by the ADA because right now only HAL's helicopter research division is involved in designing existing/future projects? The MoD and GoI have anyways decided that the ADA will handle all future aircraft R&D.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, somehow, I have found similarities between both Mumbai Terrorist Attack and one in Paris, may be the conspirators followed Mumbai, btw was there an intelligence failure from the part of the French ? Your views please.

Anonymous said...

Hi prasun,If one looks at BJP's vote share in Bihar, it is clear that for same number of votes rjd/ nitish have won lot more seats.What I want to say is that a very large section of bihari voters would be very dissaponted by the government that HaS been elected.
Alok

Unknown said...

Height of shamelessness

http://m.hindustantimes.com/world/pakistan-army-raheel-shrif-chief-invites-himself-to-the-us/story-Zc4zSyFOyD9RVv8HY0DvtJ.html

I don't know if I should laugh or feel pity...

Unknown said...

How many BLACK senators and congressmen are in USA compared to the number of JEWS who are in important government positions ? But USA got a black president before getting a jew president.
In india we had a Sikh PM for 10 years even though we have 5 times more Muslims with much more influence on a much greater number of parliamentary seats with much higher number of Muslim MPs
The apparent weakness of the Indian community of not appearing united and NOT having a GHETTO mentality and being so self critical will act as its biggest strength coz people at large wont have a phobia of Indians as they have of Muslims. I am sure no Christian majority European nation will ever elect a Muslim Head of state
After all christians have fought several 'Holy Crusades' against the Muslims.And UK is still technically a Christian Monarchy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/10777417/David-Cameron-fosters-division-by-calling-Britain-a-Christian-country.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11966524/Ukip-to-target-Jeremy-Corbyns-disdain-for-monarchy-and-military-in-by-election-battle.html

But a Hindu/Sikh would be a safe bet to symbolize their secular image. And the more money minded he is,the easier he will be to control.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Looks like the PA's COAS has indeed invited himself to visit the US, as is now being confirmed by a former PA Lt Gen:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1219646/general-raheels-us-visit-whats-on-the-table

Meanwhile, despite the anti-India tirade waged by ISI-encouraged Pakistani news-anchors, no Kashmir-origin Brits bothered to proceed to The Wembley for the much-touted protests. Sample the anti-India tirade telecast yesterday on Pakistani TV channels:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8xKK_6D48g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjSm4XT2ol4

rad said...

Is this like when American CJSC Admiral Mullen used to visit Pakistan. Seems like Pakistani's are doing the reverse. He has gone to ask USA to do more to help fund PA.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: The PA's COAS knows only too well that the coalition support funds (CSF) will start drying up from the end of this year. On top of that, out of Pakistan's forex reserves of US$16 billion, $13 billion are borrowed from various donors. That means most of this monety will be used for loan repayments with interest. Worst of all, Pakistan's overall power generation-/distribution-related circular debt keeps on increasing. With all this mess, how exactly can Pakistan remain financially afloat when it has already flattened all housing structures in North Waziristan as part of its OP Zarb-e-Azb low-intensity war (& this is by no means a counter-insurgency campaign) & without additional funds, no infrastructure rebuilding can take place for the internally-displaced people from FATA to go back to their own soil. Compounding all this is the outstanding rehabilitation works that have yet to be carried out in PoK after the 2005 earthquakes, 2010 flash=floods & last month's earthquake & landslides. This is the enormity of the problem that Pakistan now faces. Of course the logical solution would be to reduce the defence budget & reallocate these funds for the rehabilitation of the IDPs from FATA. But now; the COAS wants to have the cake & eat it as well! And that too withy a begging bowl on his hand!!!

So, when in the US, he will be asked the following:

1) Why is Pakistan spending money on raising a 12,000-strong force to provide security for the Chinese human resources that are now trickling into Pakistan for the CPEC?

2) Why is money being spent on developing ports & airports at Gwadar when non-availability of electricity has virtually shut down all of Pakistan's exports-generating industries & due to which there is nothing much to import & export?

3) Why is China not helping Pakistan with reconstruction & rehabilitation funding, & choosing instead to opt for the CPEC that will only cater to Chinese exports to Pakistan?

4) Why is Pakistan spending its borrowed money on fancy metros & buses when there are are far higher priorities that require funds? Is it just another vain attempt to attain parity with India, just for the sake of unnecessary pride?

I can guarantee that no satisfactory answers will be forthcoming from the PA's COAS & that will be the time the IMF donor-countries will close ranks & begin applying unbearable pressure on Pakistan to drastically reduce its defence budget, especially those funds earmarked for the WMD arsenals. Id Pakistan still does not budge within a 6-month timeframe, then expect economic strangulation (of the type applied against Iran) to follow. Let's then see how far China is willing to go to prop up this never-ending global headache! If Beijing is smart, then it will decide to cut its losses. Already there is some evidence of this: Beijing has described its relations with Islamabad as being iron-strong. Now, why choose the term iron, & not steel or titanium? Is it because iron gets rusty & corroded???

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: Some initial assessments can be made:

1) First, the supply of weapons & explosives. They had to be smuggled from the only porous part of France's borders, i.e. through the France-Spain border.

2) Second, the attacks were likely carried out by folks well-versed in French language, i.e. Algerian or Tunisian or Moroccan terrorists.

3) This cannot be the handiwork of ISIS or Al Qaeda alone, i.e. not non-state actors. Some as-yet-unidentified states are behind it for sure.

4) Just 3 months ago, a multinational terrorist module attempting something similar was rounded up in Italy & immediately after that the Pakistani Federal Interior Minister made a sudden brief visit to Rome.

5) It is unlikely that weapons & explosives were transferred by sea from ungoverned countries like Libya directly to the southern French or Italian coastlines, which are heavily guarded by coastal surveillance systems. The Spanish route to me appears far more probable.

sathead3 said...

The obsession with Pakistan here is really confounding to me. India has far surpassed Pakistan by every imaginable measure. Most importantly Pakistan does not have money to sustain even a short duration war. So their strategy for the foreseeable future is going to be as big of an irritating as can be. Of course they compare themselves to India and would want to be treated at par with India. That's only natural because of partition. However isn't it time India and Indians get beyond this obsession with all things Pakistan? The thing to realize is that Pakistan is a quasi military state. So all decisions on foreign policy and especially the military are made by the army. So of course their arms purchasing decision making is far more streamlined and efficient and fast since as compared to India as the civilian government has no say in it. In addition, the economy, by most accounts, is controlled in large part by the military, directly or indirectly. So it is in their interest to keep the India bogey smoldering as they direct vast sums of foreign aid to arms purchases instead of internally to education or social programs. If you look at every instance of civilian rule in Pakistan's history, the relations between the two countries have always flourished under civilian rule in Pakistan irrespective of which party won in Pakistan. Doesn't it tell you something? It is the Pakistan army that does not let relations normalize for its own interests - so that it can keep this imaginary India fear alive and keep routing billions to itself for arms manufacture and purchases. In any case there can never be all out war between the two countries because that is not what the Pak army wants. It just wants to keep the fear of an Indian attack alive, festering, smoldering but never pushing things too far. I also find the incessant attack on @raw13 strange. He comes across as mostly balanced and is nobody interested in hearing the point of view from a Pakistani? Most folks here are ultra nationalist but he ain't permitted to be nationalist? Should he not be as proud of his country as you all are of yours? sure he'll never agree with your point of view but hear him out. Don't push him away folks. He brings something totally different from anyone else here - a dramatically different point of view. Well that's just how I feel :-) All in all good read on this forum and I enjoy it as much as anyone else here.

isi13 said...

wow
we have a mr.arundhati roy here
welcome !!! sathead3

by the way did mumbai victims, soldiers on LOC etc etc dying mean anything to u.

i really hate hate about certain indians is to glorify themselves or make themselves get a supposed high morale ground by trying to assume the role of all compassionate crocodile tear shedding libtard harping on the princples of peace etc etc.
60 years were spent just doing that . and thousands innocent died , so if u woke up yesterday and felt that peace and brotherhood did not get their chance i suggest u go to sleep again.

or better try going to LOC and trying explaining to the pakistani soldiers not to kill ur countrymen, got the guts , i dont thing so because the first bullet passes u will shitting in ur pants . so the best place for libtards like u is inside the safty of your bed room and stay put. and leave it to men out there who are dying so that geniasses like u can write nonsense from the safety of your bedroom.
sabe


by the way i have no problem with raw13 he much more of a man than u it seems.

isi13 said...

@ sathead3

"Most importantly Pakistan does not have money to sustain even a short duration war"

for the last 10 years or so has it stopped them from killing indians

"Of course they compare themselves to India and would want to be treated at par with India. That's only natural because of partition"

natural because of partition ????
what r u smoking?
because u were born with 2 eyes 2 hands it is only natural to assume that u too want to be treated a par with einstein .
aukat nahein lekin sapne bare bare.


" So it is in their interest to keep the India bogey smoldering as they direct vast sums of foreign aid to arms purchases instead of internally to education or social programs. "
did u even read what u wrote.
then why the crocodile tears for pakistan.
for 1 second of glory on a blog.try times now or contact barkha dutt


"If you look at every instance of civilian rule in Pakistan's history, the relations between the two countries have always flourished under civilian rule in Pakistan irrespective of which party won in Pakistan. Doesn't it tell you something?"
yes that u r a ignoramus.
forgot kargil took place under nawaz sharif. if the civilian govt of pakistan cannot keep their army under their control then it is our fault is it?
really what did u smoke???


"Most folks here are ultra nationalist but he ain't permitted to be nationalist?"
wow u r a judge now.
so who stopped raw13 from being nationalistic. try to see how indians r treated in pakistani forums.

" Should he not be as proud of his country as you all are of yours? sure he'll never agree with your point of view but hear him out. Don't push him away folks."
right everybody was waiting for this piece of enlighment for the last 1-2 years since raw13 started to work on giving us 'a laughter a day keeps the doctor away' treatment.


"Don't push him away folks. He brings something totally different from anyone else here - a dramatically different point of view"
u just joined the party and dont worry we do welcome everybody nationalist, ultra nationalist apoligists libtards fascists secularist sickularist comedians ufologist presstitudes feminist ultra feminist mcp archealogist pappus after all this aint a pakistani forum .


please dont feel harbour ill will towards me since i excercised the same freedom of speech which u just did above.
please feel yourself wellcomed here and dont mind me.
i believe i have met another gandhi in the making
aho bagya mera

birbal said...

Beijing has described its relations with Islamabad as being iron-strong. Now, why choose the term iron, & not steel or titanium? Is it because iron gets rusty & corroded???
BINGO!!! Too...Good Prasun da.
You just know where to attack...I still remember you SAYING( writing) to a query a few years back " THE DEVIL ALWAYS LURKS WITHIN THE DETAILS "

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, in continuation to my above query about the Terror Attack, in Paris, which has stark similarities with one attack in Mumbai, 2008 in style of execution, and the the points you have opined against the query raised by Rajesh Mishra, I request your views on probable intelligence failure, since especially after attack on the Office of Charlie Hebdo? Though it appears that all the Terrorists met hell in the very same day.

Akash said...

Sir,

http://in.rbth.com/articles/2012/12/18/russia_to_roll_out_new_hypersonic_missiles_21107

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://marshall.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Honkova-Current-Developments-in-Russias-Ballistic-Missile-Defense.pdf&ved=0CCMQFjADahUKEwjk-MWYvZHJAhWUTo4KHUzTANI&usg=AFQjCNGHX0OsGM155ymdCbQiM26GjGM-8g


Are you absolutely sure of the fact that that we were offered 77N6 missiles. These are being developed for the upcoming S-500 BMD system and can also be integrated into the SA-21.These two are new designs and will form the basis of Triumfator. They also have a 500-600 km range.

Pakistan may not have deep penetration SA but they have air launched cruise missiles like Raad and 100 km ranged glide bombs. They have already made it clear that they will be using ballistic missiles on our airbases to offset the quantitative advantage. That means some of these missiles batteries will have to be deployed to the major NW airbases in ordrr to secure them in case of any contingency and such airbases are not a great distance away from the IB. Even SA-21 Triumf units deployed to cover Moscow have some C-PGM units to protect them from HARM and other Arm.

Recently Rs 3000 crore was allocated for the Ghatak programme. Is any part of this money meant for setting up an assembly line for series production? What will be the improvements made on non afterburning Kaveri to make it suitable for our Autonomous unmanned research a and its follow on production model?

Rajesh Mishra said...

"3) This cannot be the handiwork of ISIS or Al Qaeda alone, i.e. not non-state actors. Some as-yet-unidentified states are behind it for sure."

Great Point! Pakistan666 had its roots and mastermind in all the previous muslamic terrorist attacks everywhere. Even the terrorists at 911, Beslan and Moscow theater had basic Jihadi religious and terrorist connections with Pakistan.

Prav said...

@Akash .. From your article

"The design of S-400 missiles has not been completed either. The system should be fully compatible with short-, medium- and long-range missiles. Presently, however, only short-range missiles, intended for hitting targets within 150 km, have been designed without a hitch. Medium-range missiles (up to 250 km) are still “raw”, and their design needs to be finalised.

The long-range missiles are non-existent, even though such a missile would be a serious hindrance to potential enemy vehicles, including Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS). Without these missiles, the S-400 cannot fulfil its purpose – engaging targets at a long range."
So basically 3 years ago the long range missiles did not exist . We can only assume that they are still in development now .. Just like Prasun said.

Akash said...

Sir, @Prav That article is dated Dec 18,2012 . I had posted another link before which states that the S-500 missiles have already been tested and it was from July ,14. The 77N6-N and 77N6-N1 missiles are in advanced stages of developement.Its great to know rthat Almaz has offered us S-500.

Mayur M Manapure said...

http://www.dawn.com/news/1219322/
The agreement is signed between Punjab Govt and a company which you can't even find if you Google it. Hospitals, Schools and houses aren't important as important as theme parks. Chinese are expert in milking these people.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Good find, @ Mayur, also:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/world/americas/chinas-ambitious-rail-projects-crash-into-harsh-realities-in-latin-america.html?_r=0

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Please answer my Questions

1 Can India's MIG 21 BISON Defeat Pakistani JF 17

As we Know Mig 21 gave a very tough time to F 15 and F 16 in the Cope India exercise

Mig 21 with HMS + R 73 HOBS and Elta Jammer was talked of very Highly by the Americans

2 Pakistanis are CLAIMING that some SPANISH Electronic Warfare Suite
called INDRA will be installed in JF 17

How do you view this INDRA EW suite

Arpit Kanodia said...

Maybe this burn the arse of raw13 who was claiming India-Aus nuclear deal is in deadlock.

https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/665941204438278144

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MAYUR M MANAPURE: LoLz! Here's that company's website:

http://jindou.com.cn/EN/Article.asp?PageClass=10101

Here's the contact address:

Golden Bean Industry Group Co.,Ltd
No.1323, Anda Street, Chanyang district, Changchun city
Tel: 0431-88522143? 85524288
Fax: 0431-88526358
Post code: 130061
E-mail:jindou@vip.163.com

To VIJAY: Whaaaaattttt??? Suddenly Made-in-China is no longer the best for the PAF's JF-17? Relax, nothing of that sort will ever happen due to the EU's weapons embargo against China since 1989. No military hardware from the West will ever be sent to China for systems integration & we all know that such work cannot be undertaken in Pakistan. By the way, INDRA is not the name of any suite, but a company. Here are the details:

http://www.indracompany.com/en/industries/defense/offering/air/electronic-combat

http://www.indracompany.com/en/industries/defense/offering/air/self-defense

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: What will not burn, but roast & vapourise his arse will be the impending raid by the PA's SSG on Laal Masjid in the heart of Islamabad--this being the second assault after the 1st in 2007. 2 days ago the Khatib of Laal Masjid publicly warned the Govt of Pakistan that if he was barred from taking out a procession in Islamabad, then he would unleash his 1,300-strong band of female suicide bombers, all of whom fully support the TTP & ISIS. In other words, Pakistan is today being seen by everyone as being a country that can't even enforce the writ of law over its own capital city, leave alone Karachi where the Sindh Rangers haven't been able to enforce the law despite being deployed there since 1990! And these morons dream of 'liberating' J & K or creating 'Khalistaan'!!!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-Australia-finalize-nuclear-deal/articleshow/49794398.cms

This is even better....ratification of the deal means the entry-into-force of the agreement, i.e. the deal becomes operationalised.

sathead3 said...

You guys totally misread what I was trying to say. I am not a libtard or shedding tears for pak. What i mean is that the focus on pak is unnecessary. India is far beyond pak and all it will likely be is an irritant. So its not worth spending so much time and effort focussing on how pak compares to india. Its time we look at China and what it will take to get there. I enjoy reading raw13's comment. I dont have to agree with them to appreciate a counter point of view. That way we avoid group think. Just as an opposition is central to a functioning democracy.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKASH: Missile rounds are cannister-encased & can easily be used along with their TELs for diverse air-defence systems, be it the S-400 or S-500. What makes the difference is the kind of footprint effectiveness. The S-500 is envisaged as being part of a countrywide BMD network. The S-400 on the other hand, is an area air-defence network like the THAAD. Therefore, what has been offered to India as a total solution is the S-400 & not the S-500. Just because both use the same type of LR-SAMs does not mean that the S-500 has been offered to India. Nor is it right to ASSUME that long-range translates into lateral distance. Range effectiveness of any SAM is measured in terms of slant range. Consequently, the higher the missile has to travel to intercept its target, the shorter will be its lateral range.

And if the PAF was capable of attacking IAF air bases with standoff PGMs like glide-bombs or ALCMs, then it would not have been necessary to acquire TBMs or SRBMs for attacking air-bases. CIWS like Pantsyr or C-RAM can't guarantee success against inbound missile warheads or PGMs with high terminal velocity. Instead, high-power lasers are a far better option & that's why the US, Europe & Israel are close to deploying such solutions.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ALOK: What must be noted is that it is no use trying to reason out with dimwit jingos who believe that every now & then a messiah parachutes down from the heavens to their country's rescue. Such dimwits don't understand the fundamental law of nature, which is, people always get the leaders they deserve. Consequently, expecting miracles to happen due to any one person is quite a stretch! As far back as late 2010 I had been warning the Govt of India about the impending crisis in Nepal & how it will impact frontline states like Bihar & UP & why an economic course-correction was the need of the hour. Well, now it looks like the chickens have at last come home to roost. The natives of states like Bihar, UP & Punjab are all proud people & this is exemplified by these 3 states (plus Haryana) contributing the bulk of manpower to India's armed forces. Therefore, such states cannot be bought off with only promises of fancy financial dole-outs. The woes of states like Bihar & Punjab are far more deep-rooted & require a deep understanding & analysis: The following will explain it all in detail:

http://www.frontline.in/politics/adding-insult-to-injury/article7603332.ece

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/punjabs-disappearing-factories/1/347345.html

The devil always lurks within the detail, but the bulk of jingos never bother about them & hence their grass-hopping attitudes & mannerisms!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKASH: About TMD, forget the DRDO's claims & modest, crawling R & D successes. The end-user wants something for a limited TMD network within the shortest possible timeframe because for all intents & purposes it will be put to use around 2018-2019 when the shit hits the fan in the sub-continent. The end-user therefore does not have the luxury of time to toy around with experimental offerings & lengthy user-evaluations. In Russia today, it takes at least a decade to deploy a mature new-generation weapon system. And India can;t wait for that long when it comes to TMD reqmts. Don;t forget how long Russia took to sort out all the bugs in the IL-38SD MRMR/ASW aircraft. Similarly, the MiG-29Ks were ordered in January 2004, but were delivered in only 2010. These facts must be borne in mind before getting euphoric about the S-400.

sathead3 said...

@isi13 i am not shedding any tears for pak, crocodile or otherwise. I mean we shoukd be looking up to China, for example instead of focussing on Pak. Pak is nowhere near India's equal by any strech of the imagination.

Gopu said...

"for all intents & purposes it [the TMD network] will be put to use around 2018-2019 when the shit hits the fan in the sub-continent"

What is the reasoning behind this future war (for PoK)? From this statement, it sounds like India would be the instigator for this war, which is quite unprecedented. Even though India has a cassus belli for PoK, it is very old and would need some specific current event to make it relevant again and provide context for an invasion (otherwise, the international community will frame this as Indian belligerence, especially from China).

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GOPU: Not necessarily. There could well be heightened instability within Gilgit-Baltistan due to local discontent & this in turn could spill over into neighbouring Xinjiang & to Tajikistan via the Wakhan Corridor. Already the inhabitants of Gilgit-Baltistan are at odds against those of the 'Azad Kashmir' component of PoK & there's no convergence of views & thoughts about the stance to be taken by these two areas WRT the J & K issue. If matters get out of hand due to Pakistan's political immaturity, then there could well be a case for humanitarian intervention. Indian military forces going into PoK cannot legally be termed as an invasion. Liberation, yes. A country can only invade territory that does not belong to it or over which it has no legal claim. That's not the case with PoK.

Unknown said...

http://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/pakistan/christian-girl-not-allowed-to-use-school-washroom-in-faisalabad/

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