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Monday, November 28, 2016

Waging Retributive, Sustained Hyperwar

Despite all sanctimonious talk (about not retaliating with fire-assaults against ‘brotherly’ Muslim Kashmiris inside J & K’s Kashmir Valley) and bombastic bluster (about possessing full-spectrum strategic deterrence), all signals from across India’s western borders clearly point toward Pakistan being irretrievably bogged down by strategic and operational fatigue. And all this is due to—according to several retired senior Pakistan Army (PA) officers—India’s waging of multi-dimensional ‘Hyperwar’ against Pakistan on the psychological, military, economic and diplomatic fronts.
In fact, so lopsided is the present-day field deployment of the PA (with an alarming 57% now engaged in active LIC operations as against the peacetime norm of 33.33%) that hardly 11.6% of the PA is now being allowed rest & recuperation, again against the norm of 33.33%. Simply put, the PA even in the foreseeable future will be unable to go on the offensive in any theatre along Pakistan’s eastern front against India since, as per the PA’s own sequential OP-PLAN, it will be required to consolidate its gains along the Durand Line after the waging of the eight LIC campaigns (between 2004 and 2015) throughout the FATA badlands, while at the same time begin undertaking internal counter-terrorism campaigns all over Pakistan, to be followed by the launching of counter-extremism campaigns.
Clearly, therefore, the PA is neither capable of, nor is it equipped and stockpiled for waging any kind of LIC against its Indian counterpart, leave alone mulling any form of escalation at both the conventional and sub-conventional levels. Hence all the talk within Pakistan about the PA not retaliating in equal measure against India along both the LoC and the WB. But most importantly, since India late last September finally broke out of years of paralytic indecision and inaction on Pakistan’s 29 year-old proxy war, the aggressive Indian posturing backed up by actions on the ground have together produced two decisive results:

1) It has finally called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff and signalled that India’s armed forces will no longer be restrained from mounting punitive conventional or sub-conventional ground campaigns inside hostile territory with limited objectives in mind.

2) Throughout both the WB and LoC, India has seized and consolidated her moral ascendency, meaning that while India is free to take unrestrained retributive covert or overt operations against the PA, the PA on the other hand cannot do so due to its severely lopsided ground deployment footprint along its western and eastern borders.

This consequently has severely demoralised the civilian population residing within PoK, especially in areas adjacent to the LoC stretching all the way from Bhimber right up to Kel. While the IA today can do a repeat of what it did in 1993 (when through artillery fire-assaults it closed down the 200 mile-long Muzaffarabad-Kel Highway), the PA can no longer do what it did in early 1999 (when it interdicted the Srinagar–Kargil–Leh Highway by infiltrating its infantry forces over a frontage of 180km to a depth of 10km from Drass to Turtuk) under OP Badr because the IA is today sitting atop all dominating heights along the LoC and can therefore conduct artillery fire-assaults from no less than five different locations in order to bring all traffic along the Muzaffarabad-Kel Highway to a complete standstill.

Adding to the troubles of the civilian populace of PoK, especially those residing close to the LoC, are the apathetic responses of both Islamabad and the so-called AJK Government, all of which is glaringly illustrated in the two following video-clips:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn3jpkF4xk8


Headed For Financial Bankruptsy
The following three reports detail the extent of financial unsustainability of the country as it now exists:




The most glaring indictment, however, cam earlier from the United Nations Development Program in Pakistan’s outgoing country representative, Marc-André Franche, in the following interview:


The five main points of this interview were:

Pakistan's Progress on Development Isn’t Fast Enough
Franche is quoted as saying he is frustrated that a country full of “capable and intelligent” people isn’t making more progress on reducing poverty and modernising the state. “The fact that even in 2016, Pakistan has 38% poverty; it has districts that live like sub-Saharan Africa; that the basic human rights of minorities, women and the people of FATA [tribal regions in the northwest] are not respected; that this country has not been able to get its act together and hold a census; or that it has not been able to push for reforms in FATA, an area that is institutionally living in 17th century. It is extremely preoccupying,” he said.

The Country’s Political Class Uses Its Power to Enrich Itself
The UNDP official said that the country’s elites needed to change their lives to help Pakistan.  “You cannot have a political class in this country that uses its power to enrich itself, and to favour its friends and families. This fundamental flaw needs to be corrected if Pakistan is to transform into a modern, progressive developed country,” he is quoted as saying. He said that elites take advantage of cheap labour while partying in London, shopping in Dubai and investing in property abroad: “The elite needs to decide, do they want a country or not,” he is quoted as saying. Franche also had a word for the propertied classes: “I have visited some very large landowners, who have exploited the land for centuries, paid nearly zero money for the water, and how they almost sometimes hold people in bondage. And then they come to the United Nations or other agencies and ask us to invest in water, sanitation, and education for the people in their district. I find that quite embarrassing,” he is quoted as saying.

Local Governments Need Real Power
Franche said that provincial governments in Pakistan don’t have enough power.  “Only KP [the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province] has a decent law that gives real power and real money to the local government. Local government does not mean that you just elect them and deny them fiscal resources or power,” he said.

Pakistan’s Media Is Manipulated
He also said the media should be one of the pillars of democracy, but “unfortunately, the level of dependence of the government on military authorities, and the degree by which a lot of media in this country is manipulated by powerful sources, are sources of erosion of democracy and erosion of the institutions that are the foundations of this country.”

Country Needs More Opportunities

“The apartheid of opportunities in Pakistan is horrible, which is why so many young people are trying to leave the country,” Franche is quoted as saying. “Pakistan will not be able to survive with gated communities where you are completely isolated from the societies, where you are creating ghettos at one end and big huge malls for the rich at the other end. It is not the kind of society you want your kids to live in.”

(to be concluded)

137 comments:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Watch this excellent programme describing the CH-4/5 Wing Loong family of UCAVs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3DsRP10D6s&t=22s

And the following video-clips of IDEAS 2016 Expo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLPniCRHgYc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_HW1bYF1T8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykhR0qt7TXw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzHoi79Xrks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHrO5SLGuyI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G83dd0eS-No

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI9athnznos

financeblogger said...

http://www.oneindia.com/international/indo-pak-tensions-holding-up-pakistan-s-1st-census-17-years-2274532.html

Thehundered said...

Media report below confirms some of the points you stated above Prasun.

Pakistan Don't have capibility to Damage Indian Army - Pak Media
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dywbVC9_Onk

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Many Many Thanks for this beautiful and absolutely delightful Article

I am so happy to read this ; Maza Aa Gaya

The same thing about Pakistan Army Fatigue and being Overstretched has been said by many
Pakistani analysts

One Air marshal Shahzad Chaudhry even said that Pakistan must stop fighting with India
OR ELSE Next Surgical Strikes will be on Muridke and Jaish Headquarters

If that happens ; Pakistan would have no where to hide

Add to it the Following factors

1 Trump in Power in USA
2 Afghanistan hostile to Pakistan
3 Mounting External Debt
4 China and Saudis have not said anything in support of Pakistan
5 India opening up Balochistan and Indus Water Treaty as new fronts

Pakistan is really feeling the Heat

DAshu said...

I was expecting something on this line from you, Thank you very much Sir.
As per my observation I guess India is trying to force Pakis to accept current LoC as permanent IB. I hope I am wrong but this could be the scenario now.

DAshu said...

Hoping for the best deal for India. Any plans to offer more lethal weapons to Afghanistan, Like additional Mi-24s , tanks etc.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ONEHUNDRED, VIJAY & DASHU: The narrative above was meant to 'educate' those arm-chair 'experts' in New delhi who never tire on TV chat-shows of claiming that any armed clash along the LoC will result ibn escalation! Such ill-founded/ill0informed views often tend to confuse the average audience. The fact is today Pakistan is as confused as never before on multiple fronts. It was all beautifully explained by Dr Hussain Haqqani in London on October 28:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaYkcMRbTmE

Then there are the on-going Supreme Court hearings into the corrupt practices of PM Nawaz Sharif, with crucial evidence emanating from the UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfL6X2aM-U4

And finally, to cover up all the mismanagement of the country, deliberate lies & fudging of figures/performance are being fed to the Pakistani public:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR3oaAZJbTE

Subho said...

Prasun, I have a feeling that the upping of the ante vis-a-vis Indus watershed by MOdi Govt. is with an eye on AK & PoK territory. Building the dam infrastructure on our side is the first step. Next logical step will be to give them an ultimatum: No territory= No water !Let them then decide what is more dear to their hearts.





Satya said...

Sir, heating up the eastern front is not in Pakistan's interest, so is the Indian army the aggressor this time to bring Pakis to their knees? Also, how many Pakistani soldiers did we kill in 1999?

bhoutik said...

is this report true - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blg9XVBUEZg

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

STATEMENT OF THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF RUSSIA IN CONNECTION WITH REPORTS IN PAKISTAN’S MEDIA ABOUT THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION’S PARTICIPATION IN THE CREATION OF CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

Moscow, November 29, 2016, 13.45 IST

Reports appearing in Pakistan’s media about some “secret talks” between Russia and Pakistan on the creation of China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) do not correspond to the realities. The possibility of Russia’s joining this initiative is not being discussed with Islamabad.

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Good to read some positive news about border management by India.

However, there is yet another attack on Army Base with 7 deaths including 2 officers. Till now at least 70 Army personnel and 10s of police personnel have martyred this year.

How can India reduce this loss of life. Already sarcastic commentary of Indian army's so called incompetence has been spoken about in the Pak Media. It is demoralizing to say, at least for common citizen it is, to hear and see all this loss of life.

Was today's attack a parting shot for Gen Raheel Sharif or a signin attack orchestrated to welcome Gen Bajwa by Pak Army? And how can Indian Army retaliate?


Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Anonymous said...

More and more soldiers are being targetted, this situation seems unsustainable.
As Indian casualities mount what could be the future steps that can be taken to arrest the no. of casualities.
Pakistan doesn't seem to be giving up so easily.
Sid

Rajesh Mishra said...

With your vision coming true, it is most possible that India and Pakistan are inching towards an imminent war coming through in about next three months or so. As a consequence to this can there be escalations on the Pakistan western borders too. Please inform ???

kanna said...

Dada,why dont we have ASROC. it can deliver torpedo fast or onboard light/heavy torpedoes enough to hunt the sub

Anup said...

Sir,
Another attack on Indian Army did you expect Indian response very strong compare to Surgical Strike?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANUP: Of course, goes without saying. This is a sustained campaign from the Indian side & retribution will be strong & brutal, rest assured. India's equivalent of Israel's Hannibal Directive is now in full force & will get India the desired results.

To RAJESH MISHRA: Lolz! Inching towards war??? Rest assured thAt Pakistan neither has the stomach nor the finances reqd for waging any kind of war.

To SID: Unsustainable? Why so? Is anyone in Indian officialdom stating that such casualties are unsustainable?

To SRINAVASA NANDURI: Not border management, but border domination. Along a temporary ceasefire line like LoC there can never be any management, only domination. Casualties on the other side are far higher in terms of both life & infrastructure & there's total demoralisation among the civilian populace there since there are no funds being made available to PoK by Islamabad for reconstruction or for building bunkers.

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
Another terrorist attack.Not kashmir,they kill us because we are Hindu,we belongs to a Hindu state.The existence of Pakistan is threat to us.May be this is the time for vertical-escalation.
..........Please reply.

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

Was in a CII sponsored event in Hyderabad related to defense so wanted to run past you two comments that were made:

1. Is it true that development of Seeker Technology is not making much progress in India & consequently development of most missiles ( cruise, SAM etc) has taken a beating?

2. Is India at least a decade away from designing a SLBM that has a range of 5,000 kms plus?

Regards,

VIKRAM

Anonymous said...

So you mean they are hiding their losses(ofcourse deaths of their men in uniform,because civilian casualities from POK will not dent their morale significantly).But this is an impossible task ,as the dead body reaches home it becomes a news.But the national media doesn't report much casualties.
Moreover what is the objective of current unleashing of firepower by India, is it trying to get back pok or forcing china to stop considering the prospect of CPEC through territory which legitimately belongs to India.
SID

Anonymous said...

1.Sir how will India convince China not to intervene in case India goes on offensive in POK, as current situation seems to indicate that it might act so as to safeguard its economic interests via CPEC as well as its ultimate goal of making Pakistan its puppet,it has invested significantly energy in both these schemes.If India cuts the direct link between Pak and PRC,it will automatically cancel CPEC as well as make it harder for PRC to make pak its pet.
2.Sir the programme of delivery of subs carrying nuclear weapons, is it proceeding as usual or an international consensus is emerging to stop more and more weapon proliferation.
SID

Santanu Gorai said...

Superb..!!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUVO: There’s only 1 answer to this & that means causing damage in equal measure to a Corps HQ inside Pakistan. Like perhaps targetting military barracks infrastructure north of the LoC inside Baltistan where the Shia inhabitants there are against the PA’s presence in those areas.

BTW, yesterday the Sindh Police officially withdrew its case against the Azizabad weapons haul in Karachi. This was the biggest single haul of illegally procured weapons in Pakistani soil to date, & yet the law-enforcement authorities there have no chargesheet to file! What kind of message does that send to the whole world about what that country is all about! You can know about it here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMjsZTR6fqU

So relax, destruction through self-inflicted wounds is now a strategic inevitability for Pakistan.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) LoLz! Leave alone seekers, what about more smaller & less complicated hardware like electronic fuzes for mortar & tube artillery rounds? Aren’t they all still being imported from South Africa & being licence-assembled by ECIL? That’s why I can’t control my laughter everyone someone starts salivating about so-called indigenisation-levels for warships, aircraft or other platforms. 2) What design? Didn’t I explain earlier to RAD in a previous thread about the origins of the PJ-10 BrahMos project & the Sagarika Project Office & how all LACM & SLBM designs are flowing from Russia? BTW, another test-firing of Nirbhay is scheduled for next month.

To SID: Who said they’re hiding their losses & damages? Didn’t I post the two YouTube weblinks in the narrative above where all such losses/damages are shown? Have you not yet seen them? Why should China intervene? So far China hasn’t said a word about PoK or its legal status. All it has said that it will defend all its CPEC-related investments in only Gwadar.

Anonymous said...

I think we are underestimating the level of support Pakistan have in POK. Cant say about Azad Kashmir regiment but NLI is full of Gilgit Baltistan recruits.

Ayush

blackwing said...

Hello prasun sir, excellent article as usual.
I have a few questions about the kolkata class destroyers. Please be kind enough to clear them for me.

1) Is the Barak 8 missile with mf star radar enough to shoot down supersonic cruise missiles like china's Moskit?

2) I read the mf star radar has a detection range of only 25 kms for sea skimming missiles. Is that not short to react to supersonic missiles?

3) Do the Radars on kolkata have enough range to fire brahmos to its full distance of 290 kms?
What about the older Radars on the rajput and Taiwan? Can they also fire brahmos to its full range?

4) Is the garpun Bal E radar used for brahmos? If so what is it's range. I read somewhere it only has a range of 130kms.

5) Can the brahmos be used to destroy small missile boats like Pakistani fac at 290km or the boats too small to be detected?

6) Can the S400 systems we are about to import be used to shoot Chinese and Pakistani cruise missiles in the event of a war.

7) Any idea which range missile we have chosen to equip the S400? Is it 120km range 9m96e2 or the 250km 48n6?

8) I heard the Chinese have copied the Russian kalibr missile as their yj 18? Is it true? If so what is it's range? Is it the 220km export variant or the 600 km Russian variant they have copied?

9) Can the brahmos range actually be increased to 600km? Or is it just bluster?

10) How does the brahmos stack up against the harpoon block 2 and exocet?

11) Can the brahmos follow predesignated way points during flight like the western missiles so that a Salvo of brahmos can attack a target from various sides and angles?

12) Is the humsa hull mounted sonar good enough to detect and destroy Pakistan subs on the high seas? Or is it another substandard drdo product?

13) Are the Mareech and kavach good enough to protect the kolkata?

14) How many brahmos armed vessels do we have in the navy? Is it 9? 3 kolkata + 3 talwar + 3 rajput?

Thank you in advance.

shiv said...

it looks like darin 3 had the air intakes expanded. total no of darin 3 ordered?

And since KAveri is restarted, how many more tejas 1s will come out?

Manoj G said...

Hi Prasun,

Last year you had explained the crucial role that you had played by explaining to GOI that there is a need to establish a JV with Shin Maya to first manufacture the PAXWAY family of aero bridges in India so that it is financially viable to licence-assemble the US-2i amphibian in India for the IN & ICGS.

Please explain how the JV to manufacture aero bridges will make licence assembly in India of US 2i amphibian plane viable. Thank You.

G.Manoj

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

ARJUN STORY
https://www.quora.com/How-does-the-Arjun-MBT-compare-with-other-battle-tanks-in-the-world

What is the status of Arjun-2. Is army planning to buy more T-90.


PAKI-TURKEY DEFENCE DEALS
http://defence.pk/threads/pakistan-turkey-have-major-defence-programs-in-the-pipeline.463838/

SYRIAN WAR
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/28/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-assad.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/syria-war-20000-flee-government-advances-161130035136539.html

Bashar al-Assad is Winning the Syrian War. Indian leaders should learn from him. Whole world is against him. But he never gave up. He fight till end.

Please give your valuable comments.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar


Anonymous said...

1) Has the nuclear treaty with USA which we signed back in 2008 compromised or nuclear deterrent as some are saying?

2) Is the Agni 5 operational? Is it also a Russian design?

3) Is the Agni 5 enough to penetrate Chinese defences and deter them?

4) I know this is a tough one...... But any idea if our pokran tests succeeded or failed as some suggested? If so what is the maximum yield of our strategic nukes? Is it 200kt as we claim?

JS said...

What is your opinion about the Modi government?

bhoutik said...

this -

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-effort-to-help-india-build-up-navy-hits-snag-1480501812

- claims that the IN has "no defined strategy for how to use the ship in combat".
Is this true?

Anup said...

Sir,
Today MOD sign letter of acceptance after that there are no need for CCS approval?
Please answer previous thread questions

sbm said...

Is there any reason that the second test of the cannisterised Agni-V is being postponed for a long time?

Government slowdown in the project? Or simply other priorities?

Anonymous said...

JS,
If you ask this question to me, I will give the following response.
Let me put in each sector.

Out of 10 (mark for UPA government)
1) Internal Security: 7 (4)
2) Finance & Banking: 5 (4)
3) Defense: 5 (3)
4) Infra Structure (Road, Rail, Electricity): 8 (0)
5) Economy: 6 (4)
6) Sci & Tech: 6 (5)
7) Sports: 6 (6)
8) Corruption: 8 (0)
9) State-Central Interaction: 7 (4)

Did I miss any sector? Umm...
Ravi

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AYUSH: If that’s the case then why are NLI Battalions all deployerd westwards along the Durand Line & are being used only as frontier guards?

To BLACKWING: 1) Yes. 2) Calculate the height of the MF-STAR atop its mast & then try measuring its range up to its extended horizon for detecting & tracking sea-skimming ASCMs. 3) Why should shipborne radars guide BrahMos-1 when BrahMos-1 navigates through pre-determined waypoints & has its own terminal seeker? 4) So what? Why should any shipborne radar have a range greater than 130km when shipborne helicopters have radars to detect, identify & track targets at far greater distances? 5) Of course. Anything that reflects radar waves is detectable. 6) No. 7) The LR-SAM chosen for Indian S-400s is still under development. 8) There’s no YJ-18 & it is an invention of internet fanboys. Only YJ-12/CM-302 exists. 9) BrahMos-1 was designed from the outset to have 550km range. 10) Can’t compare supersonic ASCM with subsonic ASCMs. 11) Of course. 12) Sonar suites never work in isolation. Hull-mounted panoramic sonars always have to work together with towed active/passive array sonars. 13) Yes. 14) Yes.

To SHIV: Only 64. Only 20 Tejas Mk.1 SP-series have been ordered.

To MANOJ G: It’s all about economies of scale & the calculated amortisation methodology of project costs.

To SENTHIL KUMAR: That article was valid till the year 2009. After that with the advent of Arjun Mk.1A it’s a totally different story.

To JS: It’s the same as before: one always gets the leaders that one truly deserves. To expect an angel to descend from the heavens for curing all of India’s ills is delusional.

To BHOUTIK: That’s total hogwash. If someone wants to understand the IN’s strategy for carrier-based operations, there’s the entire history of the 1971 war to be studied & analysed. In that, strategies were not only defined, but also implemented for the whole world to see. All the answers can be found there. Therefore, the writer of that non-story was clearly not well-versed with the past history of naval warfare in South Asia.

To ANUP: You’re not paying attention to what you’ve read. CCS approval was accored on November 17 itself & this fact was published by the newspapers as well.

To SBM: That’s due to the need to undertake pre-planned product improvements based on the test-points obtained from the previous test-firing. The same’s the case with the Nirbhay variant of the Kalibre LACM.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI: Maybe you missed this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rszXH5hwT6E

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,According to some news sites Iraq is going to purchase Chinese HQ 9,why Iraqis want LR-SAM? VINOD KUMAR

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your Reply.

RUSSIA-CPEC Story

http://idrw.org/india-irked-over-russias-plan-to-join-cpec/

From this story, I am Predicting this are the events happened/happening/going to happen in India-Russia relations

1950-1991: Russia is friend to India and enemy to Pakistan.
1991-2010: Russia is friend to India and not enemy to Pakistan
2010-2020: Russia is friend to India and friend to Pakistan.
2020-2030: Russia is friend to Pakistan and not enemy to India.
>2030 : Russia is friend to Pakistan and enemy to India

Do you agree this are the things going to happen in India-Russia relations in future. Pakis bleeded thousands of Russian soldiers in Afghanistan. But still this
idiots want to partner with this creatures. There is no ethics in today's world especially in GeoPolitics.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Thehundered said...

Hi Prasun, the TOI report below mentions the raising of 90,274 troops for the 17 Mountain Strike Corps. I remember you have mentioned before about the Indian army being too bloated so is adding another 90 thousand more troops a good idea? Or is this happening because the government still has not done a comprehensive review for the needs of the armed forces for future challanges? Thanks.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-inks-Rs-5000-crore-howitzer-deal-with-US-to-break-Bofors-jinx/articleshow/55710606.cms

"The M-777 howitzers+ are meant to equip the new 17 Mountain Strike Corps being raised for effective conventional deterrence and "quick reaction capabilities" against China. The Army is being forced to cannibalize from its existing reserves to raise the 17 Corps, which will be fully in place with 90,274 troops by 2021."

Pierre Zorin said...

"Inching towards war??? Rest assured thAt Pakistan neither has the stomach nor the finances reqd for waging any kind of war."- Yes they have! It is called Mobile Strike and currently available for free from the App Store :)

Senthil Kumar said...


Dear Prasun,

Syrian War and Pipeline Politics

http://freedom-articles.toolsforfreedom.com/syria-war-geopolitics-geo-pipelines/

http://www.ecowatch.com/syria-another-pipeline-war-1882180532.html

Syrian War is not going to finish in near future. There are lot of vested interest in this war.

Please give your comments.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

MPatel said...

The whole of the PoK used to be highly militristic. In 1947, there were over 50, 000 retired soldiers just in what they call azad kashmir today. Out of the total population at the time of around 1 million, that's heck of a lot.

I have spent a lot of my time in the UK, it is hard t come across people of that region that have anything bad to say about the Pukes. India is also generally well thought of by them. Where we lose out is when they get news out of the J&K valleys.

Something interesting I found out, their new COAS could be Qaidani. Dont their mullahs consider them kaffir.

rad said...

hi prasun
contrary to your view there seems to be a spate of articles that claim t hat safran is going to correct design faults of the kaveri and make it viable by 2018?.

I have noticed a large no of causalities on the indian side due to l ong range sniper fire from across the border . Does it mean that we dont have a n effective sniper training school and effective weapons as it seems we are stuck with the old russian svd and dragunov weapons that were designed after the 2nd world war and more importantly made by the master guns smith IOB!!!. Pak on the other hand has gone in for austrian weapons and seems to be making its own western designed sniper rifle?
what stops the idiots now from getting direct help from russia to correct nirbhay deficiencies after the MTCR?.
was the yj-12 a copy of the kh-31 or a licensed version?. was russia involved in the re design in china?what are the chances of it being exported to pakistan to counter our brahmos to vietnam?
is elta involved in the design of the uttam aesa radar as a quid pro for us ordering elm 2052 s for jaguars and lca ?
Has the recent jaguar darin 3 IOC included the aesa radar and f-125 engines as well??

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

Apologies for the oversight. I did try to search for the answer that you provided to RAD about Brahmos & SLBM but was unable to find it.

So I just have one last question in this regard. If all the tech related to India's SLBM program is coming from Russia why doesn't India still have an operational SLBM with lets say a 5000km range?

Thanks,

VIKRAM

Prav said...

https://in.rbth.com/economics/defence/2016/11/29/russian-pak-fa-to-get-newly-designed-engine_651893

So the Russians are finally making some advancement on the engine for PAK FA. So how long until it would be time to start development work on the FGFA? And will the GOI have enough money for this by then ? Considering super Su 30 and rafale procurements and lca mk 2 which will probably still be happening then ?

Jyoti Sen said...

Dada news surfaced of India interested in buying Merkava tank, yours take on this? U. S said our vikrant is not a good design etc Yours opinion?

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA, thanks for the reply.I have 2 questions.
1) There is a news in the air that-“India eyes Israeli Merkava Tank & Namer APC”.Namer is necessary.But I think that the news is “misleading”; India is actually "eyeing" the subsystems in the Merkava and Namer for upgrading & customised it's t-55 &Vijayanta fleet. Am I right? Is this news authentic? If I’m wrong, then,is it Merkava-IV? Indian army obsessed with Arjun tank’s weight while Merkava-IV Tank’s weight is 65 ton.Its ability in Desert area is proven. Can Merkava Tank operate in terrain such as Ladakh’s Nubra valley,Depsang Plain,Aksai Chin Plateau?
……………..Your opinion please regarding this news.
2) The Constitution of "Partitioned India" was written up with NO reference to PARTITION. Cabinet approves Rs 2000 crore package for PoK refugees.Very Good news for these helpless people.Now what about the Kashmiri Pandits?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH9AReyoK5A

…………………Your opinion please.

Blackwing said...

Thank you for your replies sir.
I have a few more questions

1) Has the range of the Barak 8 been increased to 90km?

2) How long before all our kolkata class are equipped with Barak 8?

3) How do you compare the Brahmos with the original p800 onik? Is the Brahmos a carbon copy or has there been some Indian input?

4) How much work is needed before we can upgrade all our brahmos to 550 km range? Considering the Brahmos is as large as the onik, I'm guessing that it would not be too tough right?

5) I agree when with you sir, when you say the Brahmos has its own guidance system and does not need any input from ship based radar.
But if an enemy ship is 290 km from the kolkata/talwar/rajput (brahmos's max range), the ship needs to detect the enemy ship at that range to fire the Brahmos right?
Is there a radar on these ships that can detect an enemy at that range to take full advantage of the range of the Brahmos? Is so what is the name of the radar (or any other electronic which detects the enemy at 300km)?

6)Are all brahmos armed ships including the elderly rajputs equipped with that system?

7)When the range of brahmos is increased to 550km will the current brahmos missiles in service be upgraded or a whole new version be built?

8) When the range of brahmos is increased, will it require re-engineering of the current launchers on board the Kolkata/talwar/rajput or maybe the ships themselves? Or can the extended range brahmos be seamlessly equipped with these ships in their current configuration?

9) Pakistan is vastly increasing its missile capable surface fleet and guys at the pak defense forums are quite gung how about it. But none these FAC seem to have any credible air defence (azmat included). In that case won't they be easy target for IN's klub and brahmos armed vessels?

10) There is talk that the 8 s20 subs that the pak Navy will import all new equipped with SLBM. You have said earlier the pak army is greedy and won't part with the nukes. So do you think the SLBM theory is just bluster?

Blackwing said...

11) Does the pak Navy possess the c602 from China or is it just the c803?

12) You said the yj 18 is fake and only yj 12 exists. But yj 12 seems to be an air launched version only. If so what is the most formidable AShM that equips the latest type 52d Chinese destroyers.

13) Do the Chinese have a supersonic AShM that can rival brahmos apart from moskit?

14) You said the humsa sonar of the Kolkata works in tandem with the towed sonar to detect enemy subs. But has the Kolkata been equipped with a towed sonar? If not how much more vulnerable is the ship to pak subs?

15) What do you make of the recent leak of scorpene. Has it basically compromised the entire scorpene program?

16) The majority of Chinese warships especially their type 54 frigates and smaller corvettes are armed only with the yj83 and not the yj62 right? If yes what is it's range? Numbers vary wildly on the Internet?

17) Can the ak 630 ciws which the IN has shoot the yj 83 and yj62 down?

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

A few days back the RADAR at AVANTIPURA IAF Base had stopped working suddenly

This news was reported by the Media

Now a few days later PAKIS are claiming that this was an Electronic Warfare Attack from
Pakistan

What might have happened

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Loss of seven Indian Army soldiers in Nagrota is really very sad

It is high time that we took the safety of our installations seriously

By the way LOC has gone quiet

So How will we RETALIATE

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir.

Suddenly NASA's scientist started to proof pseudo-science.

"""How does this connect to the latest EM Drive research? In a desperate attempt to demonstrate that the EM Drive doesn’t violate physics after all, the authors spend a considerable amount of time arguing that the effect could be explained by pilot waves. Basically they argue that not only is pilot wave theory valid for quantum theory, but that pilot waves are the result of background quantum fluctuations known as zero point energy. """

http://www.forbes.com/sites/briankoberlein/2016/11/28/nasas-emdrive-and-the-quantum-theory-of-pilot-waves/#bcf027d17211

I dont understand first NASA says these are all hogwash, but still funding these projects. And now they saying this might explain Zero Point Energy. WTF going on.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir.

Further more, now classical Physics and Newtonian laws are violated (officially) , what you see about future of humanity?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VINOD KUMAR: Those are mere rumours. It is the FD-2000, not the HQ-9. But yes, China is going all out to secure export contracts for MBTs & ICVs from Iraq.

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: Relax, for the Russians have already denied it. These are all rumours being circulated from Pakistan’s Foreign Office at a time when even the Khubjerab Pass closed 2 days ago due to onset of snowlfall & the route will be open only on April 2 next year. Meanwhile, all earlier hype about CPEC’s land route have now being proven to be false, thanks to this news:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1299838/china-launches-direct-rail-sea-freight-service-between-kunming-and-karachi

And this:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1299683/the-giddy-brigade

To THE HUNDRED: The imperatives for deterrence-based force modernization was explained in glaring detail yesterday by the former VCAS of IA Lt Gen Philip Campose. Here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKb8RxK75xY

To MPATEL: Not him, but some of his relatives. In 1947 under the princely state of J & K, there were several villages full of Sikhs and Dogras, especially in & around Rawalpindi & in northwestern Poonch.

To RAD: How can anyone make any changes to the Kaveri when even the prototype turbofanm has yet to surface, leave alone being flight-tested? It is only after the prototype undergoes flight-testing in Russia on an IL-76MD airborne testbed that the deficiencies will be identified. What was flight-tested earlier in Russia in 2010-2011 was not the turbofan, but just the Kabini engine core. Nirbhay LACM neber had any design deficiencies. Only production engineering deficiencies exists & they are being ironed out. YJ-12/CM-302 has nothing in common with Kh-31. It has been under development since the year 2000. It will be logical to assume that the C-802As of PN will eventually be replaced by the CM-302. LRDE’s AESA-MMR-related R & D has nothing to do with ELTA. Nor will this ‘Uttam’ ever see the light of day, rest assured. No, no F125 turbofans have been ordered as yet for the Jaguar IS.

To VIKRAM GUHA: That’s because possessing a 5,000km-range SLBM is useless unless & until the IN possesses a SSBN capable of housing such SLBMs. The S-73 Arihant’s VLS silos are not capable of housing a 5,000km-range SLBM. That capability will be availabl;e only with the S-5/S-6/S-7 SSBNs.

To PRAV: Yes, as I had confirmed earlier, the AL-31FP is rated at 123kN while the AL-41F-1A is 147kN AL-41FU for the Super Su-30MKI is 153kN. Izdeliye 30 is a cleansheet design characterised by higher thrust, lighter weight, a smaller number of elements and lower operating costs. The cold section will have a three-stage compressor (there are four in the izdeliye 117S) and a single-stage turbine; the hot section (the engine core) has a five-stage compressor (instead of nine stages) and a single-stage turbine. Apart from dramatically reducing the rate of fuel consumption, the ability to supercruise also reduces the IR signature by some 75%. FGFA’s prototype airframes wsill be available only by 2018 & only after that will flight-testing commence & will last till 2023.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JYOTI SEN & SUVO: LoLz! As the saying goes, no needs is good news, meaning the user-trials of the Arjun Mk.1A are proceeding as per expectations & by the end of this month the test-results will be announced & series-production orders will be confirmed. In fact, ARDE has already commenced firing trials of a prototype 120mm smoothbore cannon that can easily be retrofitted on to all existing Arjuns. In fact, 2 types of 120mm smoothbore barrels—44-cal & 48-cal—are being tested along with a new DRDO-developed 120mm APFSDS round capable of penetrating 650mm RHA at a velocity of 1,700 metres/second.

To BLACKWING: 1) Closer to 85, not 90. 2) By next June. 3) It has Indian & Israeli hardware inputs. 4) Missiles already buil will be upgraded when they are re-lifed after their 10-year half-life. 5) No shipborne radar can do this. For OTHT, heliborne radars are used. 6) Yes. 7) Just upgraded. 8) No need. 9) No vast increase at all. It is only a modest increase. Look at how many FFGs & FAC-Ms they have had to replace. 10) SLBMs are not always carried on board SSBs or SSBNs. They are maintained in recessed state & in the PN’s casde will be deployed only during emergencies after receiving the green light from the PA’s COAS & his GHQ. 11) C-802A & C-602. 12) YJ-12 is has been installed on the first 2 of 4 Type 956E DDGs, 136 Hangzhou & 137 Fuzhou. 13) Not yet. 14) More ACTAS TAS suites will be procured in the near future. 15) Already explained everything in a previous thread. 16) YJ-83 & C-802A are the same. Range is 130km. YJ-62/C-602 has 290km-range. 17) Depends on whether the target is a single missile or a salvo of missiles.

To VIJAY: Those are mere rumours. Shutting down one radar is futile when that whole area has a cluster of IAF air bases with overlapping radar coverage. If you want military installations in India to be as secure as their UK counterparts, for example, then one will have to make matching investments. In the UK, for a population of 62 million, there are 6 million CCTVs throughout the country, with 6 lakh in Metropolitan London alone. This means for every 11 persons, there’s one CCTV camera. In India on the other hand, one goes ga-ga when a mere 5,000 CCTV cameras are installed in selected locations of Mumbai. Furthermore, several coastal states are unwilling to create functional Marine Police detachments. If this is the prevailing mindset, then this certainly is the perfect recipe for inviting further disaster.

To ARPIT KANODIA: LoLz! What is there to be surprised about? Similarly, several of S Ramanujan’s theorems are still awsaiting validation. Just imagine what all those will unleash in the years to come once they are validated.

Blackwing said...

Thank you for your replies sir. Greatly appreciated.

1)You have mentioned the range of the yj/62 and its export version c602 as 290km.But some Chinese sources claim that the domestic version has a range of 400km. Any credence to that?

2)What is the range of the YJ 12?

3)Is the YJ 12 a reverse engineered kh31 or klub or is it indigenous Chinese tech?

4) Which ships apart from the 2 sovremeny are equipped with the yj 12?

5) This is what I believe are missiles equipping Chinese vessels.

Please correct me if I'm wrong :

a) Sovremeny : yj12
b) Type 52c : yj62
c) Type 52d : yj62 and yj12
d) All other Chinese vessels : yj83

6) Chinese defence analyst claim the type 52d are nearly as powerful as the arleigh Burke and type 55 will rival the zummwalt. Your take on this?

7) How does the Barak 8 stack up against HQ9?

8) In 2014 China unveiled missile called cx01 bearing a striking resemblance to the Brahmos? Have the Russians given them this tech? Your take on this?

9) Don't we have a total of 9 Kilo subs? Out of which 5 are armed with klub missile?

10)On a lighter note......
I read that the royal Navy will retire its harpoon in 2018 with no replacement in sight until the perseus a decade later,which means the entire navy will be missile-less.
How can such a developed country make a terrible decision?
Does that mean the royal Navy will be at a disadvantage against any AShM Navy? Even Pakistan and bangladesh? Isn't it shocking that this has happened to the British Navy which not even 75 years ago was ruling the world?

Rishi said...

http://idrw.org/indias-light-combat-aircraft-advances-with-new-order/

CENTUM ELECTRONICS OF BANGALORE IS DEVELOPING OXCO AESA RADAR T/R MODULES.

83 Tejas mk1a. 40 GE-404 and 43 Kaveri. 46 Tejas mk2.

Meanwhile, under the offset contract not yet signed for India’s buy of 36 Rafales, Dassault Aviation is believed to have agreed to transfer special spray paint and coating technology of benefit to programs such as the LCA.

Rafale deal has brought confidential ToT to India like RAM coatings. Now RCS of Tejas will be 0.3-0.75 RCS. AMCA RCS will be 0.01 RCS. Hopefully, Kaveri mk2 will come in time to replace GE-414.

Rushil Anand said...

So going according to Naval Chief, the N-Tejas MK-1 is out. Which aircraft doing you think Navy will go for? Rafale-Ms?

Regards

Ved said...

Hi Prasun,
If NLCA is not an option for Navy as Admiral Lanba pointed (read in some other forum) out due to its lack of adequate thrust with MTOW why is it being promoted and invested into by IN?
Which are the next naval fighters IN is thinking of or is it going to be MiG 29k only for all future carriers IAC1, IAC2 etc.

Lastly if GE414 was awarded contract for 99 engines where will those engines be employed? Tejas MK1A? OR Tejas MK2?

Thanks

bhoutik said...

if i might ask u a somewhat unrelated question - have u heard of the "GREAT GAME INDIA" mag, if so - would u recommend it?

Anonymous said...

1)Prasun sir I read some supersonic missiles have the habit of NOT exploding on impact on the enemy ships and going straight through the ships without exploding due to excess Kinetic energy. Does the Brahmos have any such issues?

2) Has the Indian navy tested the Brahmos on decommissioned ships? Were any issues witnessed?

3) Can you list a couple of key improvements the Brahmos has over the original p 800 oniks?

4) What are the Indian and Israeli contribution to brahmos?

5) Since the p 800 oniks already had an air launched version,Why is it taking us so long to develop it for the Brahmos? Are the Russians unwilling to share that technology or something?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VED & RUSHIL ANAND: Yes, finally the official admittance & confirmation has come at last. For, it was a known fact for far too long that no single-engined MRCA is viable either operationally or financially for carrier-based flight operations. Twin-engined MRCA is the global norm & the IN cannot be the exception to this norm. So what's next? Well....of course the Rafale M will now be earnestly welcomed for Project 71/IAC-1.Vikrant, while the LCA (Navy) Mk.2 will be inducted in smaller numbers as LIFTs, mark my words. GE-delivered F414s now in delivery will go on the Tejas Mk.2 MRCA.

To BHOUTIK: Nope, never heard about it.

To RISHI: That's great news indeed. Follow this sequential pattern of awarding R & D contracts for various modules for the AESA-MMR & rest assured that within the next 30 years a functional prototype will emerge!

nag said...

Dada was it a sarcastic comment

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

PrasunDa,

About this Army drills in Bengal, is it true that the Army sought permission from Bengal Govt but they were not given permission especially in the Secretariat in Kolkata & yet the Army went ahead with the exercises?

Thanks,

Sujoy

Sethz said...

Prasun you are correct in that the IN will eventually choose a twin-engine aircraft of Western origin to operate off the IAC-1 and eventually the IAC-2 but it would be premature to presume that the Rafale will be an obvious choice. At the very least it will face torrid competition from Boeing and its offering - the (Advanced) Super-Hornet for the Indian Navy to complement its offering for the airforce bundled with a compelling Make-in-India offer that the French will find difficult to match.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To NAG: Yes indeed it was.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: The IA had sought & obtained permission. If no permission was given, then the TMC would have claimed that it’s decision was violated. Instead, the TMC is claiming that it was never informed about such exercises, meaning that those who are making such claims are either illiterate & cannot read, or they just do not bother to read official correspondence.

To SETHZ: LoLz! What competition? How much will a Super Hornet cost per-unit if the cost of setting up licenced-production is included in the total project costs? Has Boeing proposed licenced-production or just a final assembly/integration line of the type to be set up by BAE Systems/Mahindra Defence for the LW-155/M-777 UFG? What exactly is the ‘Make in India’ component in percenrage terms of the Su-30MKI today? In reality, everty marketer is trying his/her best to milk the term ‘Make in India’ without focusing on the all-important economics of the project. And Dassault Aviation too is keeping all its cards close to the chest by not revealing its plans for the Rafale final assembly/integration line in India for the next tranche of 80 Rafales that is to be ordered for the IAF. Hence, better not to fall for all the ‘Make in India’ marketing gimmicks now floating around. For, the only ‘Make in India’ that will generate jobs in large numbers will be those products that are developed in India by Indians so that almost the entire industrial eco-system for producing even the most tiny component is of Indian origin & content. That;’s precisely why in terms of quantum, the largest amount of military-industrial activity for both public & private sectors in India concerns the IN & not the IA or IAF.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Looks like the 200 Al Khalid-2 MBTs to be built will be powered by 1,500hp 6TD-4 engines.

Jyoti Sen said...

Dada so Rafale M for the future aircraft carriers. What about F35 B?

Satyam said...

Where are all the pictures of Arjun mk1a? Your blog has only ONE mk1a picture.

Is mk1a seperate from mk1? So we have 124 mk1 now, and we will have 118 mk1a and then 118 mk2? Have we ordered 40 BLT Arjuns and 20 CMF Arjuns?

What about slat armour on the back of Arjun mk1a? Is LEDS-150 on mk1a? Has Cummins India built a 1800HP QSK-38 engine yet? Has CVDRE worked out indigenous automatic transmission?

Doesnt Arjun have maintenance problems in desert areas as of a news report from last year?

"In fact, 2 types of 120mm smoothbore barrels—44-cal & 48-cal—are being tested along with a new DRDO-developed 120mm APFSDS round capable of penetrating 650mm RHA at a velocity of 1,700 metres/second." Do these 120mm cannons make sense when you suggested a 55-calibre 120mm smoothbore cannon, like the German Rheinmetal guns use today? Even the 55-calibre 120mm smoothbore cannon is getting replaced by 130/140mm futuristic cannons.

And what happened to FICV??? Literally nothing for last 5 years. We need a reboot ASAP!!!

Satyam said...

So whats wrong with Nirbhay? Nirbhay is only 1000km while it is a carbon copy of a 2500km missile? Where is all of that lost range gone? Does Nirbahy have DSMAC/terrain matching radar?

Pratap said...

Prasun, Is rafale or F-18 Super Hornet qualified for ski launch ops? Also, whats going on with Prahaar and Shaurya missiles? Haven't heard about them for a while.

Aditya said...

So iaf will buy
200 f18
189 Rafale
In the next 10-15 years in addition to 340 su30mki upgraded
120 tejas1,2
and also the fgfa.

That is an insane amount of firepower!
Can a $2 trillion economy afford to pay for all this?
Is it even realistic?

Am i misunderstanding something here?
Please clarify Prasunda !!

Aditya said...

What would be a realistic plan of action of the Indian armed forces to liberate Pok.
How long would it take and does India have the resources to pull it off.
What would be the worst case scenario if we go ahead with the military option?
The Western world has been much more supportive of India in recent years.
How would the west react to this?
How will China react?
What kind of expenditure will be incurred?
How many Indian lives be lost?
Is there any plan in place to do it cleanly and precisely?
Is the nuclear threat real and how would we tackle it?

You had earlier said it would be a 6 month operation but is it possible to keep a war going on for so long in todays day & age?

It would be greatly appreciated if you could give your expert opinion.

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
A "Dawn" report about Pakistani regimes treatment to Kohistan area of KPK.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1231903

Minority group faces various problem in Pakistan.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1086564

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Pakistans-Hindu-community-in-support-of-minority-Kalash-tribe/articleshow/52799513.cms

..........Reply please.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h53AFVzUYg
Your opinion on this?
It take 3-5 days to reach Quetta from Gawadhar, which is around 700 KM apart. I dont know how this take 3 days while he saying he drove the car at 120 Kmph.

Daily Observer said...

https://warisboring.com/the-u-s-military-will-bring-f-35s-into-service-without-finishing-them-f7a25bc8de2c

This is super depressing.
If the USA cant build a functional fighter with all the resources at its disposal what chance does India have?

The article says f35 software is crap.
Radar stops working mid flight, cant seem to drop more than 1 pgm at a time,cant seem to fire more than 1 aam at a time,the helmet mounted display lags the pilots eye movement even the gun doesn't work,

They are ordering 400+ aircrafts with all these problems!!!
This is a plane which isn't even IOC certified!!!

This is the situation in USA after selling millions of commercial and miliary aircrafts.

Can we really fault the Russians for delaying the fgfa?

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

PrasunDa,

Since you always provide very erudite comments, can you please take a look into this article on The Huffington Post and let us know if you agree with the conclusion that the author makes about the emerging hegemony in India?

http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2016/12/03/mamata-s-high-drama-is-not-about-the-army-but-against-an-emergi/

Many Thanks,

Sujoy

Ravi said...

Dear Sir

If India has to choose Between F 16 and F 18 ; which plane
will we choose and why

madforexbii said...

Yeah.. minus the F-18 to see the realistic pictures..

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Will the S5/6/7 hav a 5000 km SLBM or one with a 7500+ km range? Also, will these SLBMs as well as the K-4 be MIRVed?

Satyaki

Thehundred said...

General Mattis for pentagon, General Petraeus for Secretary of state? General Michael Flynn for NSA....All of the candidates by Trump administration above have experience in the situation of Afghanistan and South Asia.. Prasun your predictions on denuclearization of pakistan in year 2018 might just come true.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/how-trump%E2%80%99s-general-mike-flynn-sees-world

He wrote a chapter on how to win such a war against radical Islamist terrorists, but first he describes what winning means—destroying terrorist armies, discrediting their ideology, forging new global alliances and “bringing a direct challenge to the regimes that support our enemies, weakening them at a minimum, bringing them down whenever possible.”

Bringing them down whenever possible.

Did I mention that Flynn isn’t a pacifist or isolationist?

“I know [our enemies],” he writes, “and they scare me, a guy who doesn’t scare often or easily. They scare me even though we have defeated them every time we fought seriously. We defeated Al Qaeda and the Iranians in Iraq, and the Taliban and their allies in Afghanistan. Nonetheless, they kept fighting and we went away. Let’s face it: right now, we’re losing, and I’m talking about a very big war, not just Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.” [Emphasis added.]

In Flynn’s view, the war against terrorism is enormous. He makes Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld seem cautious and even timid. He says we know how to win this kind of war because we did it during World War II and the Cold War.

He recommends we do four things.

“First, we have to energize every element of national power in a cohesive synchronized manner—similar to the effort during World War II or the Cold War—to effectively resource what will likely be a multigenerational struggle…Second, we must engage the violent Islamists wherever they are, drive them from their safe havens, and kill them or capture them…Third, we must decisively confront the state and nonstate supporters of this violent Islamist ideology and compel them to end their support to our enemies or be prepared to remove their capacity to do so…Fourth, we must wage ideological war against radical Islam and its supporters.”

Thehundred said...


http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/02/opinions/inside-the-mind-of-mad-dog-mattis-bergen-opinion/

Mattis may be nicknamed "Mad Dog" because of his ferocity on the battlefield and his colorful aphorisms — "Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet" -- but not only is he an avid reader, he is also a deep thinker.
Steve Bannon selected as Trump's chief strategist

He co-authored with General David Petraeus the 2006 counterinsurgency manual that helped to revolutionize the US approach to the Iraq War, emphasizing that fighting insurgents required -- at least in the short term -- assuming greater risks for American troops who had to get out of their massive bases and live among the Iraqi people if they were to have a chance of really understanding and ultimately defeating the Iraqi insurgency.

Clearly, an urgent priority will be what to do about Afghanistan where the Taliban now control or contest territory in which 10 million Afghans live and where ISIS has established a foothold. The Obama administration has signaled that US troops will eventually be pulling out of Afghanistan since as early as December 2009 when Obama first announced a surge of US troops into the country, but also announced their withdrawal date.
Mattis clearly finds this deeply unsatisfactory and we can expect him to push for a more robust troop presence in Afghanistan unconstrained by arbitrary pullout deadlines.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JYOTI SEN: F-35B’s carrier-based variant still requires a few more years to mature.

To SATYAM: LoLz! At the bare minimum, at least 12 different photos of the Arjun Mk1A are available in this blog. MRO-related problems of Arjun Mk.1 are due to the absence of EME Workshops specializing in this MBT’s product support. 120mm smoothbore cannons make perfect sense when APFSDS & thermobaric rounds are to be fired, insiead of HESH rounds for which the rifled bore is reqd. Nirbhay’s range isn’t 1,000km, but 1,200km based on the strategic targetting imperatives of the end-users. It therefore isn’t a carbon-copy of anything, but rather a derivative.

To PRATAP: No, they have not yet been tested for ski ramp-assisted takeoffs. The IN’s reqdmt for carrier-based MMRCA is for IAC-1. From IAC-1 MiG-29Ks will be used. Prahaar, Prithvi-3 & Shaurya were rejected by the Govt of India during the last review of India’s strategic deterrence way back in 2013.

To ADITYA: Yes, it is indeed insane & unimplementable at the same time, especially if the IN wants LPHs & SSNs. As for options WRT PoK’s capture, the options were discussed before in another thread & nowhere did I say that such a campaign will last for 6 months.

To ARPIT KANODIA: Here’s the entire discussion for contextualisation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulQ14sXHcDU

And here’s a publicity stunt on CPEC from National Geographic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZ5K_rF4AxE

In reality, there’s total opacity on the funding mechanism because while the Govt of Pakistan insists that Chinese concessionary loans will charge only 2% interest over 25 years, in reality the Govt of Pakistan will have to pay 6% interest per annum & it is the data concerning the missing 4% interest rate payment that’s causing a lot of confusion even in the IMF. The missing quantum is actually meant for construction of the naval base in Ormara, related submarine rebuild facilities & acquisition costs for the eight Type b032 Qing-class submarines & their SLBMs that are now being developed by North Korea. In the long run, therefore, Pakistan will fall into a Ch9inese debt-trap pretty much similar to what Sri Lanka has fallen into & what Bangladesh could well fall into. It’s all explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWpHDecCw1U

And finally, we have this on Sino-Bangladesh defence cooperation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BOqaLnIZ6s

Surprisingly, none of the panelists seem to understand that Bangladesh’s traditional enemy has never been India, but Myanmar ever since the advent of the Rohingya problem in the 1970s. And that’s also why Myanmar’s Navy had insisted on procuring sonar suites from BEL for its locally-built corvettes. It is indeed astonishing why such diplomats & ‘naval experts’ tend to forget such issues to mention.

To RAVI: It’s the F/A-18’s Super Hornet version of course, because it has plenty of room for future enhancement, whereas that does not apply to the F-16’s airframe.

Satyam said...

How are we going to destroy 8 Qing-class submarines? With magic? Or just watch them pile up at Ormara?

Please share the dope on sub detection and sub killing. Analyze how this situation gets complicated when neutralizing sub wolf packs and combined surface-sub battle groups. My guess is the chinese will provide heavy escort protection on their way to ormara, negating our CBG offensive strike.

Using Google maps, the two places the subs are gonna hide are Buzi Makola and Miani Hor. How do we defeat them if they're hidden in a swampy lagoon with friendly ground troops and missiles all over the place? Do we just give up and surrender J&K to them? And then become sharia government?

I say we neutralize them before they reach ormara or we're toast.

financeblogger said...

In the following video beginning from 00:32:00, stating on Kashmir (bunkers for military are being build at a very fast pace in POK, masonry is so buzy building these bunkers, they have no time for anything else), also explaining the entire situation on Kashmir and whether the foreign affairs of Pakistan wld be with civilian or military would be clear in the coming time after the appointment of new Pakistani army chief.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoCNG6KTQIA&feature=youtu.be

Aditya said...

Prasunda,

Why are we going for imported design for the LPH. Can't we just modify the IAC-1 design and build it ourselves?
The naval design bureau can get consultancy from french or Spanish or italians if necessary just like we did for the IAC-1.
I am sure there isn't that much of a hurry to get these ships.
I am sure it can be designed in 3-4 years.
CSL has the manpower to do it having just built an aircraft carrier.
Is the navy considering this or have they made their mind that they want imported design?

VMT for your swift reply to the earlier questions.

Pratap said...

Didnt know Indian navy is already working on new class of destroyers beyond the Project 15 Bravo (Visakhapatnam) class www.dailypioneer.com/nation/navy-focuses-on-gen-next-destroyers.html Can you tell us more about these ships

buddha said...

Sir I am bit confused at the recent F/A-18’s Super Hornet saga.
Whether Indian will purchase then in what quantity....Will it be overkill in South Asian battle scenario..with super sukhoi rafale future fgfa.and then hornet...
2nd intensity of terrorist attack has multiplied in jambu and Kashmir...will the great game take place in 2018...airland attack on Pak to denuclearize it....

Rajesh Mishra said...

Overall even the elongated and delayed LCA project has not delivered enough good results, except for some valuable experiences. Even now it cannot be certainly said that all those experiences will be further utilized effectively or not. It was true that ISRO and HAL are poles apart. Kindly comment.

john said...

Prasunda,

Could you pls explain the delay in integrating 2052 radar and new Engine for Jaguar ?. Is it approved by Govt. ?. There are conflicting reports in media.

Thanks

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
you are wright to say that Bangladesh’s traditional enemy has never been India, but Myanmar .
Bengal Rohingya persecution of Buddhists chakma in Chitagong Hill Tract continues.According to the Partition formula, the Chittagong Hill Tracts, which had 97.5 per cent population of the indigenous communities, should have been included in India and this is what the Buddhist tribals had been hoping for.Indian Chakmas wanted the Chittagong hill tracts area to come with India , however, instead of receiving help in joining India, they were left all alone to face the Pakistan’s Baloch regiment. Today,Bangladeshi Army is training Rohingya terrorists on Burma’s Borders & they kill chakmas.Chitagong Hill Tract once Buddhist-majority, has been altered and it is one of the world’s highest militarized zone. The persecution of Chakmas forced them out of Chittagong and they are now forced to take shelter in India,specially in Mizoram.Indian Chakmas have been raising voice against their persecution for long. The Chakmas and other tribal groups of Chittagong Hill Tracts are the most unfortunate people, orphaned by the Partition.

Anonymous said...

according to Hindu paper Russia supported pakistan in the recent Amritsar summit. your thoughts pls.

Blackwing said...

1) Sir, which helicopter is used by kolkata class for OTHT?

2) Has Ka 31 helix been integrated with kolkata class or is it restricted to talwar class?

3) Is the ka 31 helix integrated with the Brahmos equipped talwar class or only the first 3 klub equipped ones?

4) What is the radar on ka 31? Is it the E 801M? What is the range for surface targets like frigates at normal cruising altitude? Figures vary wildly on the Internet?

5) How many Westland sea king Bs are active at any given time?

6) What is the range of the super searcher radar on these sea Kings for surface targets at normal cruising altitude? I could not find any data on this.

7) Are p8i Neptune capable of providing OTHT data for brahmos targeting?

8) What about Tu 145, Tu 22 and IL 38 ? Can they be used for OTHT?

9) Can air force phalcon AWACS be used for this purpose?

10) Now that finmeccanica has been blacklisted, will that affect MBDA meteor missile deal that we will buy from France for Rafale?

11) Will that affect the upgrade deal for ka - 28 choppers because SELEX is involved in it?

12) Is the SELEX seaspray to be installed on the ka 28, the same one found on the European navies?

Thanks in advance.

Gessler said...

Wow, Prasun ji! The Bhosdikes at the Mumbai naval dockyards just lost INS Betwa. A major surface combantant. Just tipped over. Most likely to be written off.

DA FAQ is going on?? First they lost INS Sindhurakshak, now this. Are they mentally challenged or something? And are they immune to law?

Yevgeny said...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4000988/A-SECOND-MiG-jet-crashes-Mediterranean-attempting-land-Russian-aircraft-carrier-returned-Syria.html

Your views on this?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: LoLz! Yes, it indeed seems so. Prior to undocking there are wooden strakes attached on both sides to keep the warship stabilised on its CG while the dry-dock is flooded in a gradual manner. Based on visual footage, it seems one of some of the wooden strakes must have given way (meaning cheap wood was selected, probably based on L-1 selection criteria) & the warship therefore began tipping over as the water levels inside the dry-dock arose. The damage is quite extensive to the main & rear masts & bridge, as the following video-clip shows:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFT1MBZVIlY

Coming just a day after Navy Day, this is a major embarrassment for the IN (a first in nits history) & heads will definitely roll this time at both the Naval Docjyard in Mumbai & also at NHQ.

Kaustav said...

Prasun sir the listing was uncontrollable after some time as CG was already affected due to some heavy machinery (DGs) n equipments being removed Also some plates were removed...when the listing was too much water flooded these areas where it would normally have not reached....the falling equipment within also disoriented and injured sailors onboard....the refit was to end next year....of course the blocks n strakes did their bit
Very tragic loss of lives men n material....salvaging from firangs as we don't have the tech 70-80 crores and will have to be cut up...so no more service by the frigate and will be a write off ....

Anonymous said...

Monu said ....

@IndianNavy - these fuckers don't know how to launch warships off dry docks and look at them cumming all-over themselves dreaming about fancy Rafale-Ms & F-18s ? They don't even deserve Tejas !

Arh93 said...

Prasun'da what do you think can they repair the ship? Put her back in service. Bhramhaputra class frigates are very useful for IN. I think in fire power- wise it is even better than PN f-22p zulfiqur class frigates the best surface ship pakis got now.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

The INS Betwa, is a shocking incident. Heads really need to roll. I will tell you, if the chinese do put in the investment into Pak land. Their infrastructure will be on another level and if they get their economy rolling. We will be in trouble. They just seem to be far more efficient at almost everything that they do. Look at how they have managed to maintain old old mirages, F-7s and rd-93 engines. I have worked with Paks abroad, the big difference between us is that they tend to take ownership and we tend to roll along, not all but most. Its that f***** up chalta hai attitude again.

Ajit

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

I thing overall things are not moving towards India wrestling back PoK anytime soon and if we don't act in couple of years, it may be gone forever as PLA would be sitting in PoK with full force by 2020.

Regards

Blackwing said...

Please help me on these queries

1) Sir, which helicopter is used by kolkata class for OTHT?

2) Has Ka 31 helix been integrated with kolkata class or is it restricted to talwar class?

3) Is the ka 31 helix integrated with the Brahmos equipped talwar class or only the first 3 klub equipped ones?

4) What is the radar on ka 31? Is it the E 801M? What is the range for surface targets like frigates at normal cruising altitude? Figures vary wildly on the Internet?

5) How many Westland sea king Bs are active at any given time?

6) What is the range of the super searcher radar on these sea Kings for surface targets at normal cruising altitude? I could not find any data on this.

7) Are p8i Neptune capable of providing OTHT data for brahmos targeting?

8) What about Tu 145, Tu 22 and IL 38 ? Can they be used for OTHT?

9) Can air force phalcon AWACS be used for this purpose?

10) Now that finmeccanica has been blacklisted, will that affect MBDA meteor missile deal that we will buy from France for Rafale?

11) Will that affect the upgrade deal for ka - 28 choppers because SELEX is involved in it?

12) Is the SELEX seaspray to be installed on the ka 28, the same one found on the European navies?

Thanks in advance.

Beautiful Babaji said...

List of serious accidents involving US Navy in 2016.

https://news.usni.org/2016/08/22/navy-investigating-uss-louisiana-nuclear-submarine-collision-msc-ship


http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/18/politics/several-sailors-injured-on-uss-eisenhower/

https://news.usni.org/2016/10/31/uss-montgomery-damaged-transiting

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/f-18-fighter-jets-north-carolina-coast-us-navy/

https://www.navytimes.com/articles/tug-collides-with-lcs-montgomery-cracks-the-hull

Murphy's law is real!!!!
Shit happens!

Stop behaving like the world has ended.
People need to chill.

Arpit Kanodia said...

""""
Throughout the 1980s, Herring almost single handedly created the entire United States support for the Mujahideen in Afghanistan by assisting the U.S. Representative Charlie Wilson to persuade the U.S. government to train and arm the Mujahideen resistance fighters to fight in the Soviet war in Afghanistan, which began in 1979 [3] known as Operation Cyclone.

Herring is well known and remembered for her long association and political engagement with President of Pakistan Zia-ul-Haq. Her contacts with Zia dated back to the early 1970s, when he, as Brigadier-General, was a contingent commander of Pakistani military formations in Jordan.[7] In 1980, President Zia convened and held a dinner in honor of Robert and Joanne Herring in Islamabad.[7] About the military intelligence program run against the Prime minister Zulfikar Bhutto, Herring reportedly defended Zia's action. She also wrote that [Zulfikar] Bhutto "was tried by his own judges and convicted of murder. The Koran serves as the unofficial Constitution of Pakistan. It exacts an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth. If you murder, you must die. The only thing Zia did was to not commute Bhutto's sentence. In a country whose constitution demanded capital punishment for murder, Zia could not violate the Law."[7]"""""

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joanne_Herring

History is pretty interesting.

Daily Observer said...

https://warisboring.com/pakistan-is-about-to-buy-a-half-million-new-rifles-ae04277c7b3b#.deuxskr79

Pakistan getting new rifles.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: The best contextualisation is provided by this book that is now available in India:

http://www.amazon.in/Faith-Unity-Discipline-Inter-Service-Intelligence-Pakistan/dp/1849045178

I highly recommend it.

To PAWAN: LoLz! In Pakistan the wailing & crying is all about India's robust diplomacy & the 200% returns on investments that the demonetisation effort will bring in, which in turn will increase the economic & military differential between India & Pakistan to such an extent that the latter will be confined within a straitjacket over the next 5 years. No wonder the Afghan President, who just 2 years ago was hailed as a Hero in Pakistan, is today being portrayed as Pakistan's No.1 villian & depite all hype about Pakistan being a declared nuclear weapons state, countries like Afghanistan & Iran are openly talking against Pakistan. The Iranian Foreign Minister at Amritsar publicly refused to take sides regarding J & K, while Ajit Doval completely outmanoeuvred Sartaj Aziz. Imagine a Pakistani who never has any time to visit any Pakistani Gurudwara now wanting desperately to visit the Golden Temple! Why? Because the Pakis had an elaborate gameplan (which miserably backfired) to make an announcement inside the Golden Temple to announce their support for a US-/Canada-based ISI-spnosored group called 'Sikhs for Justice'--this being in response to India's support for the Baloch freedom movement. But alas, all this was known to India & was promptly pre-empted & forestalled.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AJIT: Do they really tend to take ownership of their hardware??? Then how come in the history of India-Pak wars since 1947 for every 1 piece of hardware abandones by Indian Army, there were 1,000 pieces of similar hardware left abandones by the PA while fleeing the battlefield? Leave alone ownership of hardware, the PA can;t even claim ownership of their own personnel that are captured & become PoWs.

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Trump wants to mediate Outstanding issues of Pakistan, Iran said it is willing to work with India and Pakistan on outstanding issues and Russia in heart of Asia conference said Pakistan is essential for eliminating ISIS from south Asia.

This are things that were said over last one week in Pak Media. How true are these statements and what do they really mean. Is India loosing international support against Pakistan? Especially that of Iran and Russia?

Also, is it time we let go of our tussle with China on NSG & JEM and do a reset in relationship with them.

Is India playing a high risk game which is not rewarding in short term, especially with a egoistic president elect like trump in the picture now.

Regards,
Srinivasa nanduri

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Are you being sarcastic about the returns from demonetization ? Or will such returns materialize in spite of suboptimal handling of the aftermath ?

Satyaki

Pumpeya said...

Dear Prasun,

At least in the meantime there is a ray of hope for indigenization. NAG ATGM has been cleared for series production.

rad said...

hi prasun

Thales seems to be running with he hounds and playing with the hares by offering air defense equipment and missile to pak to counter India.While offering india the sraam missile etc.Cant we do any thing about that?.

THe basic lay out of the htt-40 seems to be flawed in my eyes at least, as the rear pilot view is bad compared to the pc-7 and other contemporary basic trainers .Is there something i missed out?

why would the army induct locally made rifles as per your view, fully knowing they will give us a another lame duck insas type rifle. ?

why is Israel approaching India for space tech when all they have to do is ask the US?

when will the IRNSS be operational and when will we getting hand held gps devices like garmin, trimble, magellan etc. Is it feasible to ask the Taiwanese to make it as they have great expertise in making them for Garmin etc. why is the irnss accuracy rated at a miserable 20 mtrs when gps gives us 5 mtrs?

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

1. In a reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha (Nov-25-16) about reasons behind delays in the development of the Naval LCA, the Minister of State for Defence said:

They are facing "Unanticipated complexities faced in structural design" . Will you please elaborate what type of unanticipated complexities they are referring to?

2. About the LCA for Air Force they said:

They are facing "technological challenges and embargoes". Will you please summarise what technological challenges they are referring to?

Regards,

VIKRAM

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: Of course anyone with good intentions will want to see tensions between India & Pakistan being reduced. But that’s not what Pakistan wants. The Pak High Commissioner to India clearly mentioned the term ‘muzakharaat’, meaning negotiations. Thus, Pakistan isn’t interested in talks/discussions/dialogiues as many self-delusionbal Indians like Mani Shankar Aiyar always fallaciously assume. It instead wants negotiations while its negotiating card of terrorism still has some residual value. And neither India nor the US has the stomach for it since the US is now openly courting Afghanistan & India & it was this that emboldened Afghan President Ghani to lash out against Pakistan. In fact, Ghani has also stated that from now on, Afghanistan will procure all its weapons from the US & not from Russia. Read this interview for more details:

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/%E2%80%9CIt%E2%80%99s-Pakistan%E2%80%99s-turn-to-open-the-door%E2%80%9D/article16760097.ece

Obviously the Ruskies are pissed off with this & therefore tried to rebuff Ghani at Amritsar. But the US is at last convinced about the geo-strategic imperatives of both Afghanistan & Central Asia & the linkage with Iran & is therefore now interested in leveraging India’s help for the sake of befriending Iran for long-term gains, all of which is beautifully explained here by K C Singh at a recent RUSI presentation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZhNIudJGng

As for Pakistan, all the chickens are now coming home to roost, starting with the disclosure yesterday that all the so-called dozziers prepared by Pakistan contained no conclusive evidence about any kind of Indian subersive activity inside Pakistan. Before that, the Ruskies had officially condemned Pakistani disinformation being spread about Russia’s participation in CPEC, & finally came the strongest rebuttal about the contents of the Trump-Sharif telephonic conversation. And to cap it all, India effectively scuttled all moves by Sartaj Aziz to support the Khalistani movement from inide the Golden Temple, as I had explained yesterday. Of course all this will make no sense to delusional personalities like M K Bhadrakumar or to this idiotic Indian apologist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fGOl_Tv5xE

Meanwhile, China has begun nits takeover of Pakistani assets, starting with Shanghai Electric taking over Karachi’s K-Electric: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzJJ0FzRG1Q

Does anyone now realistically expect Donald Trump to rescue such a basket case? Let’s get real!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: No, I’m not. Rs.8 trillion exists as black cash, not black income stashed away in real estate, gold, foreign currency etc. Assume for a moment that if Rs.5 trillion is returned to banks with a tax penalty of 50%, then that is a tax gain in 2016/201717 of Rs.2.5 trillion. At a lower 30% tax rate in the future, this is an extra Rs.1.5 trillion in perpetuity because these individuals will now be permanently in the tax net with a higher level of income than before. At a 5% discount rate, Rs.1.5 trillion in perpetuity is Rs.30 trillion. This is under the assumption that black cash has a low shelf-life because smart money doesn’t keep black income in cash. So a proper static benefit cost analysis of the demonetisation policy is as follows. In 2016/2017, costs are Rs.1.5 trillion and benefits are Rs.1.5 T + 2.5 trillion, or Rs.4 trillion. Just a one year calculation shows a more than 200% return on investment! But future gains, through higher direct tax revenue collection of Rs.1.5 trillion means a very, very large return on the investment. This result is predicated on the assumption that two-thirds of notebandi reflected legitimate income or savings, and only one-third was illegal. One can change various assumptions (amount of legitimate returns, discount rate etc), the result will not be changed. Even on a static no-future-policy-change base, the demonetisation policy will likely be a huge success. But, if other policy measures to reform India are not forthcoming (decline in personal income tax rates to discourage tax evasion, elimination of stamp duty and long-term tax rates on property, a clampdown on the extortion power of tax officials, and reform of election funding), then history will view demonetisation as a colossal failure of thought and reform. It would be so unlike PM Modi to stop here, and I am not betting that he will.

To PUMPEYA: It’s a small no, only 116 missiles. What is now awaited is the production clearance of the HELINA, which will be issued next year.

To RAD: LoLz! Rest assured that Pakistan will procure air-defence hardware only from China. Both Israel & India are engaged in co-developing nano-satellites for military applications as I had explained a few months earlier to GESSLER. IRNSS will be fully operational by early next year. Hand-held GPS receivers are to be mass-produced in India by an Indian OEM for which three companies, including BEL, have been shortlisted.

To VIKRAM GUHA: It’s elementary, as I had explained before. 1) Any naval carrier-based MRCA needs to be designed starting with the landing gear, & then designing the airframe around it. This wasn’t done for the Tejas Mk.1’s LCA (Navy) Mk.1 variant. This was a monumental error of epic proportions & one can only blame all the npast ADA Directors for overlooking this fundamenbtal reality. 2) ADA has been unable to design a new-generation cockjpit for the Mk.2 & therefore the IAF has specified the Cockpit NG design from ELBIT Systems. Similarly, ADA has stated that it will be impossinle to incorporate canards & therefore the only option now left for achieving super-manoeuvrability is the incorporation of GE Aero Engines’ AVEN thrust-vectoring nozzle on the F414-INS6 turbofan.

Varunn said...

Will Punjabistan be able to face the 'Pashtun problem' KC Singh talked about? More than 1 million Pashtuns have became homeless in KPK and FATA because of zarb e azb. Can this push them into joining hands with their fellow Pashtuns from across durand line against any future conflict with Punjabistan? Did Pashtun soldiers also took part in op in Pashtun areas? What can India do to benefit from it? One thing is sure - the worse is yet to come for Punjabistan.

Yolo Gems said...

Hi Prasun,

NAG ATGM won't be inducted in large numbers? After all these testing, only 113?

abs said...

Hi Prasun Da,
It's been a long time since I have posted, but let me assure you, that I do follow all your posts and comments quite regularly. A few questions:

1. In one of your last blogs you had detailed the rough contours of how a future war with Pakistan could be waged with an aim to seize whole of PoK from Pakistan. You had prescribed some urgently needed acquisitions to bolster the preparedness and carry out the operations.

Because it entails lots of new procurements, accretions and modifications to existing weapons systems, I don't see a war to regain PoK happening in another 5-7 years. You agree with my assessment?

2. The news on developing nano-sats with communications and SAR payloads, which could be launched just before the onset of war is a very cost effective work that India-Israel are doing. I wonder how long it could take to get operationalised though? And till then what would happen of the requirements for IA and IN specific comm and RISAT like surveillance and target acquisition sats for the services?

3. The outgoing US government just announced 900 million USD military aid for Pakistan. Are you sure the US will be serious about De-Nuking Pakistan? If so, what kind of Geo-political scenario to mature is it waiting for?

4. Heard rumors that the present GoI is serious about instituting the CDS and that the first CDS is likely to be from the Army. Is there any truth to the rumours?

abs said...

And the fifth and last question:

When will India shed her inertia and formally become part of the US-Japan-S Korea-Taiwan axis?

rad said...

hi prasun
I think we have a big headache in the form of the chinese VLRAAM that has bee test fired out to a range of more than 300km!. It seems to be using aesa radar or a radar from the russian agat. Mach 6 , plus data link etc . Very large no escape zone etc. Of course the radar to guide it, data link , jamming , targeting data etc are hurdles, but they have started the process.

A large volley of these missiles fired from far will definitely scatter the enemy formation and startle them .They want to out gun the amraam, meteor i think.?

Time to go for the k-100?What do we do ??

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

PrasunDa,

Indian Army has once again filed a RFI for a Sniper Rifle apparently to replace the Soviet era Dragunov sniper rifles.

Given the fact that some sections of the military are already using either the Israeli Galil or the US made M-107, is there need for another sniper rifle?

Thanks,

Sujoy

Rajesh Mishra said...

India, Russia and Donald Trump, all seem to be treating Pakistan666 in their own different manners. But their central task is the same i.e. to obliterate Pakistan completely.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,

Previous years there was lot of chatters about CLGM in DRDO's newsletters, but now suddenly this project is like non existential ?

What happened to it?

Also if Indian Army planning to purchase more Arjuns next year, so which missile they going to choose?

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

Do you think Afghanistan will be able to purchase from India as well? From the news it seems that current afghan budget is 80% from USA + allies. How much control does the Afghanistan have on its budget? Can we not donate some of the old T-XXXX to them?

BHAV

Anonymous said...

sir what's the status of chabahar project as well as INSTC
now even mongolia asking for Indian help it seems mongols are pushing for India to increase her pace.
sir only through your blog i gained a habit of going through each and every comment, but while going through an article at idrw i got a sense that some Indians think if mongolia is asking for help means it is asking for money.
sometime back in a press conference during afro-India summit as the Algerians told the so called press corps that they need Indian help, one of the Indian press corpsman asked him how much money he is expecting from INdia. I was ashamed. when mildly he told him that algerian govt. has 100 billion dollars that can be mobilised for development, THEY just require technology.
i really sometimes think if India has grown too rich, that these a___holes consider every country is a beggar.
sorry for lengthy comment but i was unable to hold myself
SID

Anonymous said...

Prasun, how many agni-3 and agni-4 do SFC have in its armoury? Atleast any educated guess you can come up with?

What is the range of A3 & A4?

Media reports indicate A4 has a longer range than A3? How is that possible considering A4 is so much smaller?

Can these two missiles penetrate Chinese BMD?

Ajai shukla recently indicated this government may be about to announce CDS or even threater command? Do you have any info on this?

Kaustav said...

24 of each type

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

Further to your comments above, President Ghani's and USA (Gen Nicholson), is there a major divergence in the views of Russia + Iran with India's view wrt Afghanistan & Taliban?

http://www.voanews.com/a/us-commander-taliban-pakistan-russia-iran/3621556.html

If so, will this affect what India is trying to do at Chahbhar port?

Ajit

Rushil anand said...

PrasunDa

1.) Only 116 Nag Missiles? Isn't that a very small order? Will a larger order be placed after they are satisfied with the series production?

2.)What moves is Modi going to play next to curb black money after demonetisation ?

Anonymous said...

The price of money in India. A sobering article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-38222672

Ananda

Soubhagya said...

What the hell!!!!! S P Tyagi arrested..... What's next. As per CBI evidence is available.

Soubhagya said...

Plastic money is on the way. Prasun ji, Modi government is on the right way as per Your suggestions.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. your idea about both AW101 helicopter deal and EMB 145 plane seem to have gone wrong, with the arrest of SP Tyagi dont know whos next?

2. the disaster of INS Betwa could have been prevented but now i think bouyancy balloons are the only way out to rescue the warship?

3. My count that no. of Rafales wil go up have now been seconded by you, sometime you have yourself said that now Rafale M will be vordered both for INS Vikranty/INS Vishal my count says it will atleast 55 making Indian Navy bigger operator of these jets than French Navy?

4. why is Boeing hell bent on building jets in India?

5. With India now focusing on Baluchistan seems to me it has calmly forgotten sbout the plight of Tibet and Tibetans

6. Wha is the issue with Mongolia being scared of China, have these countries now finally relaized that China was primarily trying to put these countries in a cycle of debt (lets leave out Pak it asked for it)

7. Since the day you said that Manmohan Singh had rehashed and updated the policies of Rakesh Mohan committee in 1991 for economic reforms i have done lot of digging, read news and tried to remember things from 1980s, did 2+2=4 and this is what i could figure out however i may be wrong, but would like to get your opinion on these, here it is:-

"by 1980s Indias economic situation was very serious, this is reason (if i remember correctly) India under Rajiv Gandhi took 2 huge loans from World Bank one to be paid over 25 ys & other over 35 yrs. Rajiv Gandhi well aware of the precarious situation asked Rakesh Mohan to head a committee to create a roadmap for economic revival in 1985, who promptly sat down and after suggestion from economist including Amartya Sen devised a revival plan that included many bitter pills by 1986.

But Rajiv Gandhi couldnt find a situation to implement it as by mid 1986 India was struck by massive drought that lasted into 1987. In this situation Gen Sundarji came up with the Brassttacks plan which was a massive military exersize but essentially aimed at attacking Pak and size back Sir Creek in south and rescue PoK and permanently finish Pak support of Khalistan and shut the brewing problem of Kashmir militancy in the bud, he got full approval from Rajiv for that.

Rajiv Gandhi had hoped to kill 3 birds with one arrow; one will stop Pak from supporting militancy forever, recover PoK and with public support completely behind him after that he will initiate massive economic revival with bitter pills to start with. As such everything was going as per plan, but someone talked and the news of impending attack reached Gen Zia ul Haq via the CIA or ISI and the willy gen flew down to Delhi in 1987 in a PAF plane to watch a India Pak cricket match (RAW was severely blasted for not seeing that coming) and in a manner similar to what Morarji Desai said in 1978 he said 'I know what do you want to do with Brassttacks' ie attack Pak. A flabbergasted Rajiv Gandhi was forced to stop all those plans and the economic revival plan based on Rakesh Mohan committee suggestions were sent to cold storage, but some years down the line in 1991 Manmohan Singh revised and relaunched the same plan under PV Narsimha Rao.

this is what i figured

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Kaustav said...

The situation of ACM Tyagi is the old style of blaming the uniform for selecting a good product, not that commissions and kickbacks as standard for political coffers have not been given. ACM Tyagi will have to be let off after due process just as previously Mr.Ghosh of OFB was let off. The political crocs will swim free as usual only gazing at each other and muddying the waters

Anonymous said...

You mean agni-3 and agni-4?

Gd said...

Hi Prasun,
Great 8 article.
Chinese are using age old tactic perfected by british. They are also doing it in our neighborhood.

ajitkumarnair said...

ALL indian military personnel in war zones like j & k and north east should be given personal weapons for protection - could be small hand held fire weapons and should be ready to fire - and everyone should be trained for self protection . loss of military personnel in war is loss to attrition - but getting killed by irregulars and taken by surprise every time makes us just uniformed men with guns - not soldiers - soldiers are supposed to fight and kill -

ajitkumarnair said...

what is the condition of chabahar port - how far are we from docking ships over there

ajitkumarnair said...

sind is the gateway for balochistans freedom - jiye sind freedom fighters should join hands with BLA to fight a common pakistani army